How Does Wendy Win (Part VI)

In the an earlier post, I indicated that for Wendy Davis to win the 2014 Texas gubernatorial election, she needed to have a particular turnout of various ethnic and partisan categories and win a particular percentage of each category. How does the October Texas Poll inform the chances of a Davis victory on November 4, 2014? 

First, I indicated that she needs to win 38 percent of the Anglo vote, 80 percent of the African American vote, 70 percent of the Hispanic vote, and 60 percent of the other vote. How is she doing? According to the crosstabs in the UT/Texas Tribune Poll, she receives 31 percent of the Anglo vote, 75 percent of the African American vote, and 48 percent of the Hispanic vote. The fourth wave of the Battleground Tracker shows how Davis fared with those same ethnic groups. In October, Davis garnered 23 percent of the Anglo vote, 80 percent of the African American vote, 46 percent of the Hispanic vote, and 37 percent of the other vote.

UT/Texas Tribune October Poll

Texas Governor

How does that compare with Bill White’s performance in 2010? According to the exit polls, White received 29 percent of the Anglo vote, 88 percent of the African American vote, and 61 percent of the Hispanic vote. Thus, Davis trails White by 13 percent among African Americans, by 15 percent among Hispanics, and does 2 percent better than White among Anglos according to the UT/Texas Tribune poll.

UT/Texas Tribune October Poll

Texas Governor

 In terms of age categories, White won on the 18-30 year olds with 50 percent of 18-24 year olds and 53 percent of 25-29 year olds, but lost all voters older than 30 years of age. Davis’ results among the age categories are similar according to the UT/Texas Tribune poll.

If the UT/Texas Tribune and Battleground Tracker's predictions are accurate in terms of the composition of the electorate and in terms of the vote choices, then Davis doesn’t win.