In 2017, the Texas Legislature
voted to eliminate straight-ticket, or one-punch, voting in Texas, but it did
not go into effect until 2020. So, this election was the first without the ease
and simplicity of voting a straight party ticket for Republican, Democratic, or
Libertarian candidates.
When considering the effect of
straight-ticket voting and its subsequent elimination, political scientists
agree that voting will take longer to vote and that down-ballot contests will
be affected to some extent by a larger roll-off than was experienced when
straight-ticket voting was an option. Straight-ticket voting offers a heuristic
method that allows people with limited information about the candidates to cast
a rational vote, assuming that the party nominates candidates who reflect the
party’s values and beliefs.
In Texas, straight-ticket
voting was credited with wholesale shifts in the party affiliation of judges
when counties swung from one party to the other party. For example, Dallas
County experienced the effect as early as 2006, and Harris County felt the
effect in 2016. Baker
Botts LLP, a leading Texas law firm, noted the results after the
2018 general elections.
Democratic candidates have been making steady gains in urban
district court races for years. Democrats already controlled every judgeship
among Dallas County’s 39 district courts and Travis County’s 19 district
courts, but they created a major shift in Harris County, winning all 37
district court seats that were up for election, each previously held by a
Republican. Together with their 2016 sweep of all judicial races, judges
elected on the Democratic ticket now control all 60 district benches in the
state’s largest county. Only in Tarrant County (Fort Worth), where all 26
district judges were elected on the Republican ticket, and Bexar County, where
Republicans still hold 5 of 27 district judgeships after a Democratic sweep on
Tuesday, are there any Republican judges in the state’s largest five counties.
As a growing number of suburban counties in Texas have
shifted from Republican to Democratic, additional counties experienced a loss
of incumbent judges, many of whom had provided years of excellent service to their
communities. In the studies of straight-ticket voting conducted by Austin
Community College’s Center for Public Policy and Political Studies (CPPPS), the
effect of straight-ticket voting on the electoral fortunes of District Court
judges, who are elected countywide, were chronicled.
There was an anticipation that
the absence of straight-ticket option would benefit Republican judicial
candidates in district court contests in large urban counties, where Democrats
had established a dominance in recent elections. The Republican Party’s hope
was that roll-off would favor their candidates and staunch and ultimately
reverse the trend of Democratic Party dominance in urban counties.
The roll-off rate did increase with the elimination of straight-ticket
voting, but the increase was not as dramatic as Republicans had hoped. The
table shows the roll-off rates in Harris, Dallas, and Tarrant Counties in the
contested District Court contests:
As the table indicates, roll-off increased (In 2018,
roll-off was less than two percent generally). In 2020, the roll-off in Harris
County averaged 5.2 percent. In Dallas County, the roll-off averaged only 2.3
percent. In Tarrant County, the average roll-off was 4.2 percent.
The absence of straight-ticket voting in 2020 in major
urban Texas counties begs the question: What was the effect? As Bruce
Tomaso notes, the result was not what Republicans had hoped:
With all Harris County voting
centers reporting, Democrats won all 14 civil District Court races on Tuesday’s
ballot. In five of those 14 contests, the Democratic candidate ran unopposed;
four of those five unopposed Democrats were incumbents.
In recent Texas elections,
Democratic voters, and in particular Democratic minority voters, far more often
voted a straight ticket than did their Republican counterparts. In those Texas
counties where Democrats at the top of the ticket do best, including Harris and
Dallas counties, straight-ticket voting was thought to confer a big advantage
on down-ballot Democratic candidates, including candidates for the district
court bench. Thus, the abolition of the straight-ticket vote was seen by many
Republicans as giving hope to GOP candidates in down-ballot races.
The blue sweep in Harris
County continues a trend that Republican leaders, including Nathan Hecht, chief
justice of the Texas Supreme Court, find troubling.
In 2016, Democrats won 23 of
23 state district court races in Harris County. In 2018, it was 24 of 24.
Hecht, in his 2017 State of
the Judiciary message, decried that among the GOP’s district court candidates
who lost in 2016 were 11 sitting judges.
“Such partisan sweeps are
demoralizing to judges and disruptive to the legal system,” he wrote.
Importantly, the effect has expanded into suburban counties
surrounding the five largest Texas counties. Fort Bend County provides an example
of the blue sweep making its way into suburban counties, even without
straight-ticket voting. Although the roll-off rate in the four District Court
contests averaged 5.9 percent, Democratic challengers defeated all four
Republican incumbents.
The Republican candidates in 2020 outperformed President
Trump, with the exception of James Shoemake. Democratic candidates, on the
other hand, underperformed Democratic presidential challenger Joe Biden by an average
of 19,439 votes. Nevertheless, every Democratic challenger prevailed.
The table below illustrates what has happened in Fort Bend
County to Republican District Court candidates since the 2016 presidential
election
In 2016, Republicans Brenda Mullinix and David Perwin ran
unopposed. In 2020, both were defeated by Democratic challengers. In 2016,
Republican Maggie Jaramillo defeated her Democratic challenger, but in 2020 she
lost to her Democratic challenger by almost exactly the same margin.
In Tarrant County, which Biden barely won, the roll-off for
Democratic candidates averaged 37,073 votes. The blue sweep obviously hit the rocks
in Tarrant County. The incumbent Republican judges held all of their positions.
Despite the absence
of straight-ticket voting, Democratic District Court candidates performed well
in most urban counties. Where Democratic judicial candidates increased their
vote was in those counties where Biden won by a healthy margin, and the
suburban trend toward Democratic Party gains continued.
In many respects, the 2020 was unique. First, there was the
COVID-19 pandemic. Second, early voting was extended from twelve to eighteen
days. Third, and possibly most important, Trump was a polarizing figure, and as
a result, most voters knew for whom they were going to vote well before
election day. An indication of the interest and mindset of the voters is the
fact that nearly 87 percent of the total vote cast occurred during early
voting.
Nevertheless, the absence of the straight-ticket option did
not result in a huge roll-off, and in the counties presented here, the
Republican judicial candidates actually outperformed President Trump, and
Democratic judicial candidates did not perform as well as former Vice President
Biden. There is no doubt that the elimination of straight-ticket voting did not
provide the boost to Republican judicial candidates that Republicans had hoped
that it would. In the 2022 midterms, perhaps Republican candidates will see an
improvement in their fortunes, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
