How Does Wendy Win?

On December 4th, in a guest column for the Texas Tribune, Professor Mark Jones wrote that Anglo women are the key for Texas Democrats in the 2014 elections: The result for Senator Wendy Davis “will depend in large part on her ability to make substantial inroads, via both mobilization and persuasion, among the state’s female voters—especially Anglo women.” Jones’ analysis is based largely on a recount of Ann Richards’ election campaigns in 1990 and 1994, with a nod towards White’s campaign in 2010. He continues that “. . . Davis will need to make deep inroads among Anglos, especially Anglo women, who will make up about a third of voters, if she has any hope of defeating Abbott.” Jones acknowledges the increased percentage of the “Democratic-leaning non-Anglo electorate over the past 20 years,” he nonetheless emphasizes the role of Anglo women in any possibility of a Davis victory. According to Jones, “If they [Anglo women] flock to Davis, or away from Abbott, a la 1990, Davis will be sworn in as governor in 2015.” 

Let’s focus on what Davis needs to do to win in November 2014, examining the Texas population and possible routes to a Davis victory over Greg Abbott. First, the population numbers:

2014	Total
All	26,071,202
<18	6,955,161
18-24	2,616,413
25-44	7,157,118
45-64	6,312,663
65+	3,029,847

Source: Texas State Data Center, 2012 projections for 2014

Using a projected Voting Age Population of 19,116,041 and estimating a registration rate of 71 percent for all Voting Age Texans, the registered voters should be 13,572,389. If voter turnout is 40 percent of the registered voters, there should be 5,428,956 votes cast in the 2014 gubernatorial election.

  

Using the projections by race and ethnicity, the following table shows the percentages of each race/ethnicity:

	Anglo	African American	Hispanic	Other
Total Population	44.09%	11.46%	38.85%	5.60%
Voting Age Population	48.01%	11.46%	35.02%	5.52%

Now, the real assumptions and projections enter in to calculate the electorate in November 2014:

	Anglo	African American	Hispanic	Other
2014 CVAP*	52.08%	12.82%	29.99%	5.10%
2014 RV**	54.60%	13.44%	24.78%	4.22%
2014 TO Rate	44.00%	45.00%	34.80%	30.00%
2014 % of Electorate	60.06%	15.12%	21.56%	3.16%

*Citizen Voting Age Population **Registered Voters

The data in the table are based on the following assumptions: Anglo CVAP is 95 percent of the Anglo VAP, and RV is 85 percent of the CVAP; African American CVAP is 98 percent of the VAP, and RV is 85 percent of the CVAP; Hispanic CVAP is 75 percent of the VAP, and RV is 67 percent of the CVAP; Other CVAP is 67 percent of the VAP, and RV is 67 percent of the CVAP.

So, how can Wendy capture enough votes to win the gubernatorial election? First, if the calculations above are accurate and she wins 38 percent of the Anglo vote, 80 percent of the African American vote, 70 percent of the Hispanic vote, and 60 percent of the Other vote, she will have accumulated 2,818,213 votes, 51.9 percent of the vote. Second, are the percentages of the various racial/ethnic groups feasible? In 2010, Democrat Bill White won 29 percent of the Anglo vote, which exit polls estimated made up 67 percent of the electorate, 88 percent of the African American vote (13 percent of the electorate), 61 percent of the Hispanic vote (17 percent of the electorate), and an uncalculated percentage of the Asian American and Other vote, (3 percent of the electorate). She will need to increase the percentage of the Anglo vote over what White received. Also, the Anglo percentage of the total vote must decrease considerably (from 67 percent to 60 percent) due to an increase in the African American share of the vote (from 13 percent to 15 percent) and a larger increase in the Hispanic share of the vote (from 17 percent to nearly 22 percent). Third, the logical place to increase the percentage of the Anglo vote is Anglo women. White won only 30 percent of the votes cast by Anglo women, and they made up one-third of the electorate. White did much better among African American women (93 percent) and Hispanic women (65 percent). Fourth, she needs to increase the turnout of young voters of all races/ethnicities and minority voters, both Hispanics and Asian Americans, of all ages.

What are the routes to a Wendy win? There are several possible scenarios, and they involve more than just doing better with Anglo women. Can it be done? As I posted earlier: Definitely!