The Texas Tribune/University of Texas Poll results: 34 Percent Republican Party; 29 Percent Democratic Party; 37 Percent Independent.
Ideas are the bases for government and politics; Institutions are the means of achieving public policy
Monday, December 25, 2023
Friday, December 22, 2023
Ideological Position of Texas Senators, Regular and Special Sessions, 2023
Mark P. Jones published the Lib-Con scores of Texas Senators in the regular and special sessions in 2023. The score is based on votes in the Texas Senate during those sessions.
Monday, November 20, 2023
Who Voted in Travis County Precinct 450 in the 2023 Special Election
Derek Ryan posted the following chart depicting who voted on the Texas Constitutional Amendments in November 2023.
I decided to perform a similar study using data that I collected on registered voters in Travis County precinct 450. The data included all registered voters who voted in the 2022 Democratic Primary election. I then used the data from the Texas Secretary of State to determine who among the 2022 Democratic Primary voters also voted in the November 2023 Constitutional Amendment election.
The results are depicted below:
The chart depicts the number of votes cast in Precinct 450, the number and percentage of Democrats who voted on each day of early voting, the total early vote, and the Election Day vote. Democratic voters constituted nearly 40 percent of early voters and nearly 35 percent of Election Day voters in precinct 450. Overall, Democratic Party primary voters in 2022 constituted 37.2 percent of the total votes in precinct 450.
Interestingly, in the purportedly Democratic precinct in Travis County, those voters who could be considered strong Democrats in terms of party affiliation made up fewer than 4 in 10 voters on the constitutional amendments. This would lead one to conclude that special elections on constitutional amendments are not considered partisan elections to registered voters in precinct 450.
Thursday, November 9, 2023
Voter Turnout in November 2023 Special Election
The votes are calculated by the Texas Secretary of State although there will some time before the results are official. Anyway, here is the voter turnout for all 254 Texas counties based on the unofficial results. Thirteen of the fourteen proposed amendments passed, bringing the total amendments to 530.
Sunday, November 5, 2023
Projected Total Vote after Election Day
Early voting is completed and posted by the Texas Secretary of State for all 254 counties in Texas. What will Election Day produce in terms of voter turnout? My prediction is that about 10 percent of Texas registered voters will vote on Election Day (November 7th), and the total will be about 17 percent (plus or minus 2 percent). The chart depicts the early vote, Election Day vote, and total vote in the Constitutional Amendment special elections in 2019 and 2021. It also includes my projection for 2023.
Saturday, November 4, 2023
Texas Early Voting, 2019, 2021, 2023
This chart depicts the results of early voting in Texas in 2019, 2021, and 2021. The results, when finalized later today, will provide a clue as to the total voter turnout in the 2023 November election in Texas. Election Day is November 7, 2023. If you haven't voted yet, be sure to go to the polls (any location in Travis County displaying the "Vote Here" sign) and express your choice on the 14 Constitutional Amendment Propositions and two Travis County bond proposals.
https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/15563728/
Friday, October 27, 2023
Texas Early Voting Through Day 4
In the chart below, early voting in Texas is depicted for November 2019, November 2021, and November 2023. As you can see, voter turnout is surpassing the vote in both 2019 and 2021. Part of the explanation might be the fact that Houston (Harris County) is electing its mayor and council members as well as the fourteen Propositions to amend the Texas Constitution. I will update the chart when the early voting period is complete (November 3rd). I will also predict the total voter turnout. Stay tuned.
Monday, September 25, 2023
Quick Guide to the 14 Constitutional Amendments 2023
Saturday, July 29, 2023
How Liberal or Conservative are Democratic and Republican House Members
Shortly after the end of the 88th Legislature's regular session, The Texas Tribune posted charts depicting the Democratic and Republican House members DW-Nominate scores for contested votes during the regular session. The charts indicate a liberal Democratic Party and a moderate Republican Party. Let's compare the two parties in terms of their members:
First, the Republican Party:
The Meaning of Party ID in Contemporary Texas Politics
One of the most important concepts in political science is party identification. As it was originally conceived, party identification (PID) was considered a psychological attachment to a political party. It was formed early and not likely to change. The parties were thought to represent different positions on public policy issues of the day. In a sense, it was a logical attachment to a set of ideas, or an ideology. However, both major parties in the United States were not sorted ideologically, since both parties contained liberals, moderates, and conservatives.
Currently, the conception of political parties is more a social identity rather than a shorthand for positions on public policies. The acquisition of party identification is also viewed differently. Party identification is not inherited from one's family; it is acquired through a series of social identities held by an individual. The figure demonstrates the process and its possible results:
As people have sorted based on social and ideological identities, partisan identification has become a social identity*, based on group affiliation rather than public policy issue positions. Partisanship as a social identity is affected by all of the psychological effects that are associated with group identity. An individual is more likely to take a hostile attitude toward members of the out-group and be biased towards members of the in-group. Members of the other political party are not just to be defeated in civil competition; they are to be eliminated because they are evil. Party competition is not a battle over ideas or public policy positions; it's a war to eliminate the competition. Winning is the goal. Politics is tribal: the in-group versus the out-group, a zero- sum game where a win by the out-group is a loss by the in-group. The opposition isn't legitimate, and its members are not human.Thursday, July 27, 2023
Partisan Change in Texas
In Red State: An Insider's Story of How the GOP Came to Dominate Texas Politics, Wayne Thorburn describes the transition in Texas from a one-party Democratic state to a two-party state and ending as a one-party Republican state. The transition took decades, from the 1970s to the early 2000s. Over a thirty year span, Republicans came to control all of the statewide offices in Texas, a majority of the Texas congressional delegation, and both chambers of the Texas legislature. Thorburn identifies several factors in the 1970s and 1980s that assisted Republicans in dominating Texas politics and government: (1) John Tower’s senatorial victory in 1961 had consequences for Texas Republicans throughout the 1970s; (2) Liberal Democrats were effective in taking control of the Democratic Party during the 1980s and purging the party of conservative Democrats; (3) the victory of Bill Clements in the 1978 gubernatorial election over John Hill, the liberal Democrat; and (4) the election of Ronald Reagan as the 40th president of the United States.
To demonstrate the transition, Thorburn uses vote results
from the following grouping of counties: Big Six, Suburban Counties, Metro Counties,
and small city counties. The map depicts their location:
For some time, pundits have been predicting that the
Democratic Party will regain its position as the dominant political party in
Texas. Much of the prediction has been lodged in the increase of Hispanics in
Texas. In 2022, according to the US Census Bureau, Hispanics became the largest
ethnic group in Texas, surpassing non-Hispanic whites. Though Hispanics do not make
up the majority of Texas’ population, they are a plurality of Texans.
To see how far (or not far) Democrats have progressed toward
regaining the majority in Texas, let’s compare the votes of Texans in the
gubernatorial election of 2022 with gubernatorial elections in the counties
selected by Wayne Thorburn to measure the Republican rise to majority status.
The table depicts the 2022 gubernatorial election in the counties
used by Thorburn.
Overall, in the 56 counties, Abbott garnered 837,583 votes
to O’Rourke’s 603,502 votes, a difference of 234,081 votes. O’Rourke won the
Big Six Counties by 601,124 votes. The only other grouping that O’Rourke won
was the Travis County (Austin) and surrounding Suburban Counties. Abbott won
the Dallas/Tarrant Counties Suburban Counties by 242,565 votes, the Harris
County Suburban Counties by 181,356 votes, and the Bexar County Suburban
Counties by 96,495 votes. Abbott won the Other Metro Counties by 317,167 votes.
The creation of the so-called “Red State” occurred largely
during the 1986 to 1998 elections. We’ll look at the gubernatorial elections
during that period through Thorburn’s data. We’ll also look at party
identification (PID) during the period as another indicator of partisan change.
First, in 1978, Republican Bill Clements won his first term
as governor, claiming the governorship of Texas for the first time in 105 years
According to Thorburn, Clements’ victory was the result of winning the
following groups of counties:
Year |
Category |
Statewide |
|||||
Big Six |
Suburban |
Other Metro |
|||||
Percent
Republican |
Vote Margin |
Percent
Republican |
Vote Margin |
Percent
Republican |
Vote Margin |
||
1978 |
52.4 |
50,523 |
50.9 |
4,511 |
51.2 |
10,622 |
50.4 |
1994 |
51.3 |
52,089 |
59.9 |
146,114 |
58.4 |
51,959 |
53.8 |
2002 |
53.9 |
154,751 |
69.8 |
349,073 |
57.6 |
106,096 |
59.1 |
2006 |
49.4 |
-17,174 |
63.6 |
10,070 |
61.7 |
112,867 |
56.7 |
2010 |
47.7 |
-96,297 |
64.7 |
337,720 |
59.5 |
141,172 |
56.5 |
2014 |
48.8 |
-47,885 |
73.0 |
495,506 |
64.6 |
201,296 |
59.3 |
2018 |
44.3 |
-424,475 |
62.5 |
495,332 |
61.76 |
285,042 |
55.8 |
2022 |
41.3 |
-601,124 |
61.3 |
518,038 |
64.1 |
317,167 |
54.8 |
Obviously, the Republican percentage of the vote in the Big
Six counties has declined since 2002, When Rick Perry won nearly 54 percent of
the votes cast in the Big Six counties. Since the, the percentage of the vote
for the Republican candidate for governor has declined each election, and the
Democratic candidate’s margin has increased, reaching more than 600,000 votes
in 2022. These counties are the primary target for further Democratic Party
gains.
In the Suburban counties, Republicans hold a significant
advantage over Democrats. After peaking at 73 percent of the gubernatorial vote
in those counties, the percentage has declined, but the winning margin in votes
has increased, reaching more than 518,000 votes in 2022. There are some
counties where Democratic gubernatorial candidates can increase their share of
the vote and reduce the Republican percentage of the vote as well as the margin
of the vote.
In the Other Metro counties, Democrats lost support from
these counties through several election cycles between 1986 and 1998, when
Republicans won majorities in all of the selected counties. Since 1998,
Republicans have won majorities in all six counties.
Here are the vote results for selected Other Metro counties:
There is not much hope for Democrats in these six counties.
In terms of party identification, we have polls since the
1960s that show how the once-dominant Democratic Party lost support to
Republicans. In 2005, the Republicans held a commanding lead in party
identification. Since 2005, however, party identification has settled to what
is essentially a tie among party identifiers.
There are two distinct periods in which party identification
shows the growth of Republican Party attachments and decline of Democratic
Party affiliation. First, party identification from 1982 to 1990.
During the second period, 1991-2007 Republican Party
identification increased, especially after 2000, and Democratic Party
affiliation decreased. By 2005, 42 percent of Texas Registered voters
identified with the Republican Party in Texas. Independents, people who profess
no party affiliation, also grew during the period to become the largest segment
of registered voters in 2007.
Since 2010, parity among Republican, Democratic, and
independent identifiers has been the rule. In the June 2023, Texas Poll
reported the following partisan attachments:
The second table shows that 34 percent of registered voters
were either strong or weak Democratic Party identifiers, 37 percent were either
strong or weak Republicans, and 29 percent were pure independents or
independents who leaned toward the Republican Party or Democratic Party.[1]
Although there is no doubt that Republican candidates for
partisan office hold a definite edge over Democratic candidates in statewide
elections and a majority of US congressional districts, Texas House and Senate elections,
partisan affiliations among registered voters only slightly favors the
Republican Party. Among young voters—voters under 30 years of age, there is a
distinct preference for claiming no partisan affiliation and voting for
candidates on the basis of factors other than party identification.
[1]
I consider independents who lean toward one of the two parties to be
independents. The Texas Poll consider leaners to be partisans and add them to
the two parties’ identifiers. See PID 3 in the table.
Wednesday, July 19, 2023
Counties 34-71
If you're reading this blog to understand voting in the 71 Texas counties that comprise 90 percent of the registered voters in Texas, and you're not depressed yet, then this post should do it for you. Or, like me, you could look for something positive that would mobilize you to make a difference in the 2024 general election.
Here are remaining counties. The picture is not pretty!
Of the 38 counties in this final group of Texas counties, Beto won only two counties (Maverick County and Starr County). Note that voter turnout in those counties was extremely low; only 28 percent of the registered voters participated in Maverick County and only 32 percent in Starr County. Overall, Abbott won the 38 counties by a margin of 450,054 votes, garnering more than three out of every four votes cast.
Unfortunately, being realistic is necessary when analyzing Democratic prospects in these counties. The only optimism can be found in the possibilities in Bastrop County, where Beto received nearly 42 percent of the vote, and voter turnout exceeded one-half of the registered voters in the county.
Tuesday, July 18, 2023
Texas Counties 11-33
As we consider the second group of Texas counties, we should note that Democratic Party candidate Beto O'Rourke won only four of the 23 counties. Overall, Beto lost this set of counties by 483,219 votes. On the other hand, Governor Abbott won 63.6 percent of the two-party vote in the counties.