Monday, November 20, 2023

Who Voted in Travis County Precinct 450 in the 2023 Special Election

 Derek Ryan posted the following chart depicting who voted on the Texas Constitutional Amendments in November 2023. 


I decided to perform a similar study using data that I collected on registered voters in Travis County precinct 450. The data included all registered voters who voted in the 2022 Democratic Primary election. I then used the data from the Texas Secretary of State to determine who among the 2022 Democratic Primary voters also voted in the November 2023 Constitutional Amendment election.

The results are depicted below:


The chart depicts the number of votes cast in Precinct 450, the number and percentage of Democrats who voted on each day of early voting, the total early vote, and the Election Day vote. Democratic voters constituted nearly 40 percent of early voters and nearly 35 percent of Election Day voters in precinct 450. Overall, Democratic Party primary voters in 2022 constituted 37.2 percent of the total votes in precinct 450.

Interestingly, in the purportedly Democratic precinct in Travis County, those voters who could be considered strong Democrats in terms of party affiliation made up fewer than 4 in 10 voters on the constitutional amendments. This would lead one to conclude that special elections on constitutional amendments are not considered partisan elections to registered voters in precinct 450. 


Thursday, November 9, 2023

Voter Turnout in November 2023 Special Election

 The votes are calculated by the Texas Secretary of State although there will some time before the results are official. Anyway, here is the voter turnout for all 254 Texas counties based on the unofficial results. Thirteen of the fourteen proposed amendments passed, bringing the total amendments to 530.



Sunday, November 5, 2023

Projected Total Vote after Election Day

 Early voting is completed and posted by the Texas Secretary of State for all 254 counties in Texas. What will Election Day produce in terms of voter turnout? My prediction is that about 10 percent of Texas registered voters will vote on Election Day (November 7th), and the total will be about 17 percent (plus or minus 2 percent). The chart depicts the early vote, Election Day vote, and total vote in the Constitutional Amendment special elections in 2019 and 2021. It also includes my projection for 2023.



Saturday, November 4, 2023

Texas Early Voting, 2019, 2021, 2023

 This chart depicts the results of early voting in Texas in 2019, 2021, and 2021. The results, when finalized later today, will provide a clue as to the total voter turnout in the 2023 November election in Texas. Election Day is November 7, 2023. If you haven't voted yet, be sure to go to the polls (any location in Travis County displaying the "Vote Here" sign) and express your choice on the 14 Constitutional Amendment Propositions and two Travis County bond proposals.

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/15563728/