Predicting Voter Turnout from Early Voting in the SOS Counties: An Update

First, I predicted the total early vote in the state based on an estimation of the percentage of the total early vote that the early votel in the SOS counties (the 15 most populous counties in Texas) would represent. I predicted that it could be 67.16 percent. In actuality, it was 67.32 percent, which made my estimate of the total early vote 5,950 votes more than the actual early vote.

Year	Day 12	Total EV	D12/TEV
2006	1,074,824	1,728,030	62.20%
2008	3,556,156	5,351,660	66.45%
2010	1,731,589	2,640,918	65.57%
2012	3,407,497	5,020,901	67.87%
2014	1,715,731	2,554,692	67.16%	Prediction
2014	1,715,731	2,548,742	67.32%	Actual

Then I used my prediction of the total early vote in the state to predict the total vote (early vote plus Election Day vote) for Texas. I predicted that the early vote percentage of the total vote would be the same as the percentage in 2010 (53.03 percent). It was actually 54.13 percent, which made my prediction of the total vote (4,817,446) 108,890 votes more than the actual total vote (4,708,556). The error was 2.31 percent.

Year	EV State	Total Vote	EV/TV
2006	1,728,030	4,399,068	39.28%
2008	5,351,660	8,077,795	66.25%
2010	2,640,918	4,979,870	53.03%
2012	5,020,901	7,993,851	62.81%
2014	2,554,692	4,817,446	53.03%	Prediction
2014	2,548,742	4,708,556	54.13%	Actural

Then I used my prediction of the total vote to calculate voter turnout (total vote/registered voters). My prediction was 34.35 percent. The actual turnout rate was 33.57 percent. The error was 2.3 percent. That's not bad!

Year	Total  Vote	Reg Voters	Voter T/O
2006	4,399,068	13,074,279	33.65%
2008	8,077,795	13,575,062	59.50%
2010	4,979,870	13,269,233	37.53%
2012	7,993,851	13,646,226	58.58%
2014	4,817,446	14,025,441	34.35%	Prediction
2014	4,708,556	14,025,441	33.57%	Actual