Tuesday, December 11, 2018

Texas Voter Turnout in 2018 in Comparison

In the last post I mentioned the Texas Tribune's article on voter turnout. Here's a spread sheet that lists voter turnout (VEP) in 2014 and 2018 for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Texas was second worst in voter turnout in 2014 and worst among the states that elected governors in the election. Voter turnout is better, but Texas is still near the bottom. The states are arranged by voter turnout in 2018 from highest to lowest. Can Texas ever best Minnesota?

State
2014 Turnout
2018 Turnout
Difference
Minnesota
50.6
64.3
13.7
Colorado
54.7
62.9
8.2
Montana
47.5
62.0
14.5
Wisconsin
56.9
61.7
4.8
Oregon
53.4
61.5
8.1
Maine
58.7
60.2
1.5
Washington
43.1
58.9
15.8
North Dakota
45.0
58.6
13.6
Michigan
43.2
57.8
14.6
Iowa
50.3
57.7
7.4
Vermont
40.8
55.9
15.1
Georgia
38.6
55.0
16.4
Florida
43.3
54.9
11.6
Virginia
36.6
54.8
18.2
Massachusetts
44.7
54.6
9.9
New Hampshire
48.3
54.6
6.3
Alaska
54.8
54.6
-0.2
Connecticut
42.5
54.4
11.9
Missouri
33.6
53.6
20.0
Maryland
42.0
53.5
11.5
South Dakota
44.7
53.4
8.7
New Jersey
32.5
53.1
20.6
Nebraska
41.4
51.8
10.4
Ohio
36.2
51.5
15.3
Utah
30.3
51.4
21.1
Illinois
40.8
51.4
10.6
Pennsylvania
36.5
51.3
14.8
Delaware
34.9
51.1
16.2
Kansas
43.3
51.1
7.8
Idaho
39.8
50.1
10.3
North Carolina
41.1
49.6
8.5
California
30.7
49.5
18.8
Arizona
34.1
49.1
15.0
Wyoming
39.7
48.7
9.0
Kentucky
44.9
48.6
3.7
Rhode Island
42.4
48.0
5.6
Alabama
33.2
47.5
14.3
Nevada
36.6
47.5
10.9
New Mexico
35.4
47.3
11.9
Indiana
28.3
46.9
18.6
Texas
28.3
46.3
18.0
South Carolina
35.2
45.2
10.0
Louisiana
44.9
44.8
-0.1
Tennessee
29.8
44.7
14.9
District of Columbia
35.7
43.8
8.1
Oklahoma
30.0
42.5
12.5
West Virginia
32.0
42.5
10.5
New York
29.0
42.1
13.1
Arkansas
40.3
41.4
1.1
Mississippi
29.0
40.7
11.7
Hawaii
36.5
39.3
2.8

Source: Texas Tribune and US Elections Project, http://www.electproject.org/

Sunday, December 9, 2018

Voter Turnout in the 2018 Midterm

According to the Texas Tribune, Texas ranked sixth among the 50 states in increase in voter turnout compared to the last midterm election in 2014. However, Texas still ranks near the bottom in turnout of voting-eligible population, which is calculated by taking the number of votes cast and dividing it by the voting age population minus noncitizens and felons who have not had the voting rights restored.

Among Texas' 18,072,155 eligible voters, there were 8,371,655 votes cast in the contest for the U.S. Senate between incumbent Republican Ted Cruz and challenger Democrat Beto O'Rourke.


What is notable about the figure is that more than seven million Texans were registered but did not vote. Much less dramatic is the more than two million Texans who were not registered to vote. Consequently, changing Texas' restrictions on voter registration--to participate in an election, one must register at least 30 days prior to the election and there is no online voter registration--is less important in increasing voter turnout than mobilizing registered voters who, for some reason, do not participate.

Hopefully, the Texas legislature will consider removing the impediments to registration by adopting same-day registration and online registration; however, the political parties and affiliated groups will have to increase their mobilization efforts for Texans to be among the leaders in voter turnout among the states.

Wednesday, June 27, 2018

Texas Party Identification, Registered Voters, June 2018

The most recent UT/TT Poll indicated that the partisanship among Texas registered voters has remained fairly stable for the last few polls. Slight variations in percentages are within the polls margin of error. Here are the results:


Sunday, May 20, 2018

2018 Primary Runoff Early Voting



After five days of early voting for the runoff elections in the Democratic and Republican primaries, only 3.22 percent of Texas’ more than 15 million registered voters had cast ballots. The numbers are not impressive. The secretary of state’s office usually provides early voting information on the 15 counties with the largest number of registered voters, but for the runoff, the number of counties was increased to 30. Since the Republican Party had no runoff election for any statewide office, there were only 22 of the 30 counties that held runoff elections for Republicans. However, on the Democratic side, with a runoff in the gubernatorial contest, all 30 counties held Democratic runoffs.

The chart displays the total ballots cast as a percentage of registered voters in the 30 counties. The 11,793, 711 registered voters in the 30 counties account for 77.3 percent of the 15,249,541 registered voters in Texas.


In the Democratic runoff election, 1.19 percent of registered voters cast their ballots in person, and 0.50 percent voted by mail. A total of 219,333 Democrats voted in the runoff in those 30 counties. In the Republican runoff, 0.86 percent of registered voters cast their ballots in person, and 0.67 percent voted by mail. A total of 159,854 Republicans voted in those 30 counties.

Almost 60,000 more Democrats than Republicans voted in the runoffs. However, remember that 8 counties did not hold Republican runoffs; so the comparison is not equivalent. Nevertheless, the fact that so few Texans exercised their right to determine their party’s nominees is appalling.