Predicting Voter Turnout for the Texas Midterm Elections

As I indicated in a previous post, I believe that the voter turnout in the early voting in Texas’ 15 most populous counties can provide the foundation for predicting the total vote and voter turnout.

The early vote in the 15 most populous counties (Day 12 in the table below) can be used to calculate the total early vote in the state. As the table indicates, in elections between 2006 and 2012, the early vote in the 15 most populous counties has constituted between 62 percent and 68 percent of the total early vote for the state. The trend has been for the percentage to be larger in presidential election years than in midterm election years; however, the drop off has diminished. So, I predict that the early vote in the 15 most populous counties will constitute just over 67 percent of the total early vote in the state. If that prediction is accurate, the total early vote in 2014 should be 2,554,692 votes.

Year	Day 12 Vote	Total EV	D12/TEV
2006	1,074,824	1,728,030	62.20%
2008	3,556,156	5,351,660	66.45%
2010	1,731,589	2,640,918	65.57%
2012	3,407,497	5,020,901	67.87%
2014	1,715,731	2,554,692	67.16%

From the total early vote in the state, I predict the cumulative total from early voting and election-day voting. As the table indicates, in elections between 2006 and 2012, the total early vote has constituted between 39 percent and 66 percent of the total vote in the state. Again, the percentage has been larger in presidential election years (especially 2008) than in midterm election years. I am predicting that the percentage in 2014 will be identical to the percentage in 2010—53.03 percent.

Year	Early Vote State	Total Vote	EV/TV
2006	1,728,030	4,399,068	39.28%
2008	5,351,660	8,077,795	66.25%
2010	2,640,918	4,979,870	53.03%
2012	5,020,901	7,993,851	62.81%
2014	2,554,692	4,817,446	53.03%

With the total vote predicted, I can predict the voter turnout rate. The table below illustrated the voter turnout rate in elections between 2006 and 2012 and my prediction for 2014. The prediction is a turnout rate of 34.35 percent, which is lower than in 2010 and only slightly higher than in 2006.

Year	Total Vote	Registered Voters	Voter T/O
2006	4,399,068	13,074,279	33.65%
2008	8,077,795	13,575,062	59.50%
2010	4,979,870	13,269,233	37.53%
2012	7,993,851	13,646,226	58.58%
2014	4,817,446	14,025,441	34.35%

I had hoped that voter turnout would increase in 2014. So, if you haven’t voted yet, be sure to go to the polls on Tuesday, November 4^th. In Travis County, you can vote in any precinct, but be sure to bring one of the approved photo IDs. Let’s prove me wrong!