Texas Counties 11-33

 As we consider the second group of Texas counties, we should note that Democratic Party candidate Beto O'Rourke won only four of the 23 counties. Overall, Beto lost this set of counties by 483,219 votes. On the other hand, Governor Abbott won 63.6 percent of the two-party vote in the counties.

 

What do the counties that Beto won indicate for what Democrats can do in 2024 to garner more votes? First, note that voter turnout is extremely low in three (Webb, Hidalgo, and Cameron Counties) of the four counties, averaging 33.5 percent of the vote. In the county that Beto won with the highest percentage of the vote (Webb County), voter turnout was a paltry 31.1 percent of registered voters. Only Hays County featured turnout that exceeded half of the registered voters. Obviously, voter turnout among Democratic Party identifiers who did not vote is the highest priority.

Second, among the counties that Abbott won, I would largely ignore those counties where he won with 65 to 80 percent of the two-party vote. I think that there are certain counties among this group that should be engaged. For example, Bell County, Brazoria County, and Nueces Counties provide an opportunity to expand the Democratic Party vote in 2024. I would hope that Democrats devote some money and organization to assisting Democratic Candidates in those counties. Montgomery County, because of its proximity to Harris County, might be considered for additional efforts to mobilize Democrats.

Third, I would expend little to no effort in the counties where Abbott earned more than 80 percent of the vote. There are probably few Democrats there to mobilize.