Was Last Week the Crisis?

Almost two years ago, I wrote a post concerning presidential prerogative powers and President Trump.

Last week, President Trump, through a tweet, announced that the United States was pulling its troops from Syria and soon from Afghanistan. This action led to the resignation of Defense Secretary James Mattis. In his resignation letter, Mattis explained that the president deserved to have a defense secretary whose policy positions were more in line with the president's views. Mattis had tried to change the president's mind on withdrawal from Syria, but his lack of success led to his resignation.

Then, on Friday, the president allowed the government to be shut down over his desire for five billion dollars for a border wall. Although the president had previously stated publicly that he would be glad to carry the mantel of shutting down the government if he didn't get the wall, he subsequently blamed Democratic Party leaders for forcing the shut down. The president canceled his planned trip to Mar a Lago for a sixteen-day vacation and remained in Washington, D.C., despite the fact that the Senate does not plan to return to the Capitol until Monday.

The question is: Does the president win this crisis, pull the U.S. forces from Syria and get his border wall? And if he does, what are the consequences? Is the result frontlash, where the president is emboldened to expand his power and influence because the public agrees with his actions and the other branches concede him additional authority? Or is it backlash, where the president is reigned in by one of the branches because the public opposes his actions?

Part of the answer may be found in a series of public opinion polls on the wall:


Though Republican Party members show high support for the wall, Independents and Democratic Party members do not. Overall, support for the wall remains just under 40 percent. With the poll figure in mind, the question becomes the intensity of the public's opinion in opposition to the wall. Will President Trump pay a price if the government shut down lingers? Do Republican Senators oppose Trump, negotiate a deal with Democratic Senators, and send a compromise to President Trump? Next week may provide a clue as to the final result. It doesn't look pretty!