Wednesday, February 28, 2018

Voter Turnout in the Texas Primary Elections

Day 8 of the Texas primaries continued a trend started on the second day. Democrats are more engaged than Republicans. On Day 8, the number of Democrats voting increased by 82,714 over the previous day. The gap between the turnout for the parties increased dramatically, going from10,742 to 44,157. The spike in 2018 Democratic turnout reflects the increase. Will the trend continue? Will the increased turnout in the Democratic Party primary yield an increase in Democratic turnout in the general election in November? Are the counties in the SOS counties a significant percentage of Texas' registered voters? And if so, are the counties mostly urban counties that tend to support Democratic candidates anyway?

I can only answer some of those questions: The SOS counties constitute 65 percent of the registered voters in the state, which means that Texas' 239 other counties contain only 35 percent of the state's registered voters. Indeed, some of the counties are supportive of Democratic candidates--Travis, Dallas, and Harris--but others--Tarrant, Collin, and Montgomery--are strongly Republican.

The November elections will be interesting!


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