Wednesday, March 2, 2016

My Estimate of Texas Primary Turnout

In an earlier post, I estimated the number of Democratic votes that would be cast in the 2016 Texas presidential primary election at 1,282,454, using the number of early votes cast in the 15 counties with the largest number of registered voters and an assumption concerning the percentage of the total vote that the early vote in those counties would constitute. For the Republicans, I estimated that the total vote would be 2,742,533.

I underestimated the Democratic vote by 151,373 votes, or 11.8034 percent. That's not very good. However, I only underestimated the Republican vote by 89,701 votes, which is 3.2707 percent. Not great, but better than suggesting that the turnout would be "huge."

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