Friday, November 6, 2015

My Prediction of November 2015 Turnout

I wasn't even close with my prediction. My low prediction was 1,834,185, which is 251,039 more votes than were cast (1,583,148). That is an error of almost 16 percent. Why was it so far from the actual. My prediction was predicated on the early vote in the 15 largest counties in Texas making up 26.39 percent of the total vote. In reality, the early vote in those counties made up almost 32 percent of the total vote. My bad!

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