Saturday, October 31, 2015

Predicting the November 3, 2015 Turnout

In previous posts, I have used the early vote in the 15 largest counties to predict voter turnout in the election. Using the data from the same early vote this time (499,012) and assuming that this is approximately 26.39 percent of the total vote, then I predict that turnout when voting is completed on November 3, 2015 will be 1,890,913 +/-3 percent, which means between 1,834,185 and 1,947,640 votes. That would calculate as a turnout of between 13.11 and 13.92 percent of registered voters.

That seems high, but I'll stick with that prediction.

No comments:

Post a Comment