Predicting Texas Primary Voter Turnout 2014

Now that early voting for the Texas March 4, 2014 primary is complete, do the results help predict the level of voter turnout in the Republican and Democratic primaries? I think that they do. So let’s give it a shot, hoping that I don’t make a fool of myself in the process.

First, let’s look at the results for the 15 largest counties in 2014:

County	Registered Voters	Rep Early Votes	Dem Early Votes
Harris	2,006,270	75,400	30,108
Dallas	1,170,598	43,745	34,815
Tarrant	969,434	52,719	22,621
Bexar	915,839	40,549	27,544
Travis	627,040	17,149	23,088
Collin	466,533	27,669	5,331
El Paso	390,949	5,238	17,382
Denton	388,608	23,210	4,079
Fort Bend	349,550	16,293	4,529
Hidalgo	307,426	3,923	33,688
Montgomery	270,019	25,078	1,427
Williamson	259,878	13,728	4,044
Galveston	185,850	11,953	2,892
Nueces	184,789	6,659	4,556
Cameron	181,802	1,639	8,572
Total	8,674,585	364,952	224,676

Now, let’s look at the results from the 15 largest counties in 2010:

County	Registered Voters	Rep Early Votes	Dem Early Votes
Harris	1,889,378	62,646	40,021
Dallas	1,129,814	34,382	21,476
Tarrant	924,682	42,191	8,570
Bexar	891,082	33,005	22,753
Travis	586,882	16,882	13,759
Collin	413,772	28,068	2,699
El Paso	375,128	7,752	18,380
Denton	355,340	18,440	1,996
Fort Bend	300,777	13,720	5,198
Hidalgo	290,097	2,845	27,971
Montgomery	243,027	16,872	1,609
Williamson	230,122	14,463	2,943
Nueces	188,165	6,293	4,955
Galveston	179,928	6,836	4,106
Cameron	171,024	2,027	8,258
Total	8,169,218	306,422	184,694

Now, let’s consider some results from the 2010 gubernatorial primaries to estimate the vote in 2014. In the Democratic Party’s primary election, there were a total of 679,877 votes cast. Of those, 294,577 were cast during the early voting period. Those early votes constituted 43 percent of the total votes. About 63 percent of the total early vote cast in the Democratic primary were cast by the 15 largest counties. Using these to estimate the 2014 Democratic primary vote, I estimate that the total early vote for all Texas counties will be about 350,000 votes. Estimating that the early vote will constitute about 45 percent of all votes cast, which contemplates an increase in early voting as a percentage of the total vote, then the total vote in the Democratic Party’s primary will be about 777,000 votes. 

In the 2010 Republican Party’s primary election, there were a total of 1,484,111 votes cast. Of those votes, 598,854 were cast during the early voting period. Those early votes constituted 40 percent of the total votes. About 51 percent of the total early vote cast in the Republican primary was cast by the 15 largest counties. Using these to estimate the 2014 Republican primary vote, I estimate that the total early vote for all Texas counties will be about 730,000 votes. Estimating that the early vote will constitute about 42 percent of all votes cast, which contemplates an increase in early voting as a percentage of the total vote, then the total vote in the Republican Party’s primary will be about 1,738,000 votes.

Bottom line: I estimate approximately 1,738,000 votes in the 2014 Republican primary election and approximately 777.000 votes in the 2014 Democratic primary election.