Texas: A One-Party State?

In a recent commentary, Wayne Thorburn, who was executive director of the Republican Party of Texas from 1977 to 1983, described Texas as a one-party state. Thorburn’s commentary is a prelude to his forthcoming book—Red State: An Insider’s Story of How the GOP Came to Dominate Texas Politics to be published by The University of Texas Press this spring.  Thorburn describes the state of the Texas Democratic Party in terms of contested offices, from the statewide level to the local level, and concludes that: “Unless and until the Texas Democratic Party is able to rebuild a foundation of support throughout the state with viable party organizations recruiting candidates for county and district offices, its efforts to promote a few top-level candidates will take a very long time to succeed. Just ask the Republicans who elected John Tower in 1961 and waited nearly 20 years before electing any other statewide official.”

I met Wayne in the early 1980s and admire the work that he did to promote the Republican Party in Texas. I also admire his emphasis on party organization and the building of a “farm system” of candidates as the way to gain support for the party and increase its influence on politics and public policy. I assume that his book, which I’m anxious to read as soon as it’s published, will promote the same formula as the method to achieve partisan victory and, eventually, dominance. However, is Texas really a one-party state, and even if it is, is it likely to stay a one-party state in the future?

I think that almost all political scientists would agree that Texas was a one-party state from the institution of the 1876 Texas Constitution to the 1970s. Looking at party identification figures during the period for which we have data, there is no doubt that a majority of Texans considered themselves Democrats until the late 1970s. And that partisan affiliation was reflected in the composition of the legislature and other elected offices.

                  Source: http://www.laits.utexas.edu/txp_media/html/part/features/0702_01/PID.html

 

In statewide executive contests during the 1970s, the Republican candidates offered little competition for Democrats:

Office and Year	Total Vote	Republican Vote	Republican %
Lieutenant Governor
1970	2,248,220	750,445	33.4
1972		No candidate	No candidate
1974	1,580,048	444,870	28.2
1978	2,210,292	760,642	34.4
Attorney General
1970	2,213,361	599,185	27.1
1972		No candidate	No candidate
1974	1,579,938	379,108	24.0
1978	2,267,251	999,431	44.1
Comptroller
1970	2,172,341	630,100	29.0
1972		No candidate	No candidate
1974	1,535,599	419,657	27.3
1978		No candidate	No candidate
Treasurer
1970	2,191,630	622,023	28.4
1972	3,270,360	1,509,384	46.2
1974	1,579,423	559,402	35.4
1978		No candidate	No candidate
Land Commissioner
1970	2,164,142	624,735	28.9
1972		No candidate	No candidate
1974	1,538,226	389,780	25.3
1978		No candidate	No candidate
Agriculture Commissioner
1970	2,160,381	658,500	30.5
1972		No candidate	No candidate
1974	1,538,579	413,005	26.8
1978		No candidate	No candidate
Railroad Commissioner
1970		No candidate	No candidate
1972	3,115,616	1,078,274	34.6
1974	1,547,362	412,633	26.7
1974	1,489,906	412,565	27.6
1976	3,605,614	1,185,434	32.9
1978	2,105,992	798,359	37.9

Source: Gary Keith, “Republicanization of Texas (And National) Politics: Planting the Seeds in the 1970s,” Unpublished paper, Table 3   

    

Even in 1978, when the Republican candidate for Governor—Bill Clements—won, there were no Republican candidates in four of the 7 contests for statewide executive positions, and the highest vote-getter was attorney general candidate James Baker III, who received 44.1 percent of the vote.

The story was the same in the Texas Legislature—Senate and House:

Texas Senate General Election Contests: 1970s

Year	Republican seats won	Very Competitive (45%+) but lost	Marginally Competitive (40%-44.9%)	Not Competitive	Republicans did not field candidate
1970	2	1	1	3	8
1972	3	2	3	5	18
1974	3	0	0	7	6
1976	3	1	2	3	6
1978	4	0	0	5	7

Source: Keith, Table 4

Texas House General Election Contests: 1970s

Year	Republican seats won	Percent of House
1970	10	6.7
1972	15	10.0
1974	16	10.7
1976	18	12.0
1978	23	15.3

Source: Keith, Table 5

Where Republicans did show growing strength and challenged Democrats were in contests for the U.S. Senate and in gubernatorial contests:

U.S. Senate General Election Contests: 1970s

Year	Republican Vote	Total Vote	Republican %
1970	1,071,234	2,299,610	46.6
1972	1,822,877	3,413,903	53.4 (won)
1976	1,636,370	3,874,230	42.2
1978	1,151,376	2,312,540	49.8 (won)

                                                Source: Keith, Table 7

General Election Contests for Governor: 1970s

Year	Republican Vote	Total Vote	Republican %
1970	1,073,831	2,306,675	46.6
1972	1,533,986	3,409,501	45.0
1974	514,726	1,654,984	31.1
1978	1,183,828	2,369,699	49.996 (won)

                                                Source: Keith, Table 8

Gary’s paper didn’t look at local contests and how pockets of Republican support were used to build the current dominance of the Republican Party in Texas politics. Hopefully, Thorburn’s book will fill that void as well as amplify on how the Republican Party achieved its success in Texas.

But, is Texas really a one-party Republican state today as it was a one-party Democratic state in the 1960s? If party-in-the-electorate is the standard for judgment, then the Republican Party has not achieved the status achieved by Democrats during the 1960s. In party identification, partisanship remains about equally split among Republicans, Democrats, and independents. So, can the Democratic Party challenge Republicans in the near future? I believe that they can, and the opportunity exists now. Democrats just have to seize the opportunity.