How Does Wendy Win? (Part IV)

I went back and watched Professor Cal Jillson’s presentation on PurpleTexas and noted that he said that Anglos traditionally make up 66 percent of the electorate, Hispanics make up 20 percent, and African Americans make up 12 percent. 

What if my projections are incorrect and the composition of the electorate is what Professor Jillson states in his presentation? How does Wendy Win? She doesn’t!

Here are the calculations:

	Total	Anglo	African American	Hispanic	Other
Projected TO	5,428,956	3,583,111	651,475	1,085,791	108,579
Democratic %		30	85	70	65
Democratic Vote		1,074,933	553,754	814,343	70,576

If the results follow Jillson’s calculations, Wendy Davis garners 2,513,607 votes, which is 46.3 percent of the vote. Greg Abbott wins with 53.7 percent of the vote.

So what must Wendy do to make my projections come true? She must win 164,000 additional votes from Anglos, 102,920 votes from African Americans, 5,100 votes from Hispanics, and 32,427 votes from other ethnicities. Of course, any combination of votes that results in her increasing her share of the vote total by 304,606 votes, assuming that the total vote remains 5.4 million, results in a Wendy Davis governorship.

Can Wendy win? Definitely!