The more I think about the analysis by Professor Mark Jones
and his emphasis on Ann Richards’ campaigns and elections in 1990 and 1994, the
more things I find that make the analysis troublesome. The electorate in 2014 will
not be identical to the electorate that existed in 1990 or even 1994. Let me
point out three major differences.
First, young people and their vote choices in 1994 were strongly
Republican, and that is unlikely in 2014. In 1994, George W. Bush garnered 59
percent of the 18-29 year-olds’ votes and 54 percent of the 30-44 year-olds’
votes. In party identification, 19-29 year-olds chose the Republican Party over
the Democratic Party by a margin of 22 percent—51 percent were Republican and
only 29 percent were Democrats. By comparison, Rick Perry, in 2010, received
only 46 percent of the 18-29 year olds’ votes and 49 percent of the 30-44 year-olds’
votes. In 2014, Wendy Davis should win a majority of the 18-35 year-olds’
votes. The problem, of course, is to ensure that they vote.
Second, the Hispanic population has increased dramatically
since 1994. According to the William C. Vasquez Institute, there were
approximately 3,909,000 voting age Hispanics in Texas in 1994, and there were
about 1,553,000 Hispanics who were registered to vote. In 2014, there are
projected to be 6,694,304 voting age Hispanics, and there will be approximately
3,364,000 registered Hispanic voters. The Hispanic share of the electorate has
more than doubled since 1994, making any comparison between the electorate in
1994 and 2014 troublesome.
Third, efforts by Battleground Texas, Lone Star Project, and
One Texas to identify and organize Democrats through registering citizens to
vote, providing candidate assistance, and organizing the grass roots will
change the context for the election in 2014. Whether these efforts will yield
significant gains in support for Democratic candidates in 2014 is questioned by
Republican political operatives. There is no doubt among pundits that the Texas
Democratic Party does not have organizational resources that are equal to those
of the Republican Party of Texas; however, the individuals involved with these
efforts surely have the expertise and experience necessary to create a
difference in Texas. All that is necessary is for them to apply their abilities
effectively.
On the other hand, there are two major similarities between
1994 and 2014. First, the party identification of registered voters in 2013 is
similar to the party identification of voters in the exit polls in 1994. In
October 2013, the Texas Tribune/UT poll found the following distribution among
Texas registered voters: 36 percent Republican; 33 percent Democrat; and 31
percent Independent. In 1994, the VNS exit poll produced the following results:
40 percent Republican; 34 percent Democrat; and 23 percent Independent. The
party identification of voters tends to favor Republicans because of their
higher turnout rates. So I’d consider party identification a draw as the 2014
election approaches.
Second, the split in the Republican Party of Texas between
purists and pragmatists, which has been a fixture in intra-party Republican
politics for some time, continues. Republican purists maintain that the party’s
principal function is representing a conservative position on issues. On the
other hand, pragmatists maintain that the party’s principal function is winning
elections so that its positions on issues become public policy. Purists view
compromise and an expansion of the party’s membership to include moderate conservatives
as anathema. Pragmatists, on the other hand, want the party to reach out to
groups that will expand the party’s base and help win electoral majorities.
Currently, Tea Party supporters in the Republican Party represent the purists,
challenging “Republicans in name only”—RINOs—as unfit to be members of the
Republican Party’s coalition. Purists drive the party to an extreme position
ideologically; whereas pragmatists force the party toward moderation. If
purists continue to increase their influence in the Republican Party of Texas,
the party faces the dilemma of becoming too ideologically extreme to represent
the ideological preferences of a majority of Texans.
Again, the conclusion is that Wendy can win, but winning
will require lots of work! Definitely!
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