Thursday, May 10, 2012

Of Ideology and Partisanship in Texas

 
In a recent post, I considered ideology in Texas and provided a method of determining your ideology. In this post, I want to consider the connection between ideology and partisanship in Texas.

There is a long-standing debate in political science about political polarization in American politics. The debate is not over whether polarization exists; rather, it is over who is polarized. Are only the political elite—politicians and party leaders—polarized or does the polarization extend to registered voters and other members of the mass public? Most prominent among the supporters of the different sides in this argument are Morris Fiorina—who takes the side of elite polarization in his book with Samuel J. Abrams and Jeremy C. Pope entitled Culture War? The Myth of a Polarized America—and Alan Abramowitz—who takes the side of a polarized public in his recent book entitled The Polarized Public: Why American Government Is So Dysfunctional.  I tend to side with Abramowitz in this argument. However, let’s consider the evidence from Texas.

A 2012 public opinion poll conducted by UT-Austin and The Texas Tribune provides a partial answer to the question. Below are two questions on controversial social issues that illuminate the differences in Texas public opinion on these issues. What do they tell us?

Here is the question and percentage for each response (in parentheses) from the February 2012 poll:

Q43. What is your opinion on gay marriage or civil unions? 
1. Gays and lesbians should have the right to marry (31%)
2. Gays and lesbians should have the right to civil unions but not marriage (29%)
3. Gays and lesbians should not have the right to civil unions or marriage (33%)
4. Don’t know (7%)

Here are the cross-tabs by party identification:

Gay Marriage
Marriage
Civil Union
Neither
DK
Total
All
31
29
33
7
100
SD
56
16
22
6
100
WD
47
18
31
4
100
I
30
33
29
8
100
WR
21
49
29
1
100
SR
7
40
48
5
100
SD=Strong Democrat
WD=Weak Democrat
I=Independents, including Democratic and Republican Leaners
WR=Weak Republican
SR=Strong Republican

How should we interpret the results for all respondents to the question? First, a slight plurality is opposed to either gay marriage or civil unions. A slightly larger percentage favor gay marriage than favor civil unions. Then, why did Texans overwhelmingly adopt a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage and civil unions in 2005? It probably had to do with who voted in the constitutional amendment election: partisanship and age were probably most important factors influencing the election results.

What does the survey indicate about differences between Democrats and Republicans in Texas? Notice that the greatest difference is between strong Democrats and strong Republicans: 49 percent in favoring marriage, 24 percent in favoring civil unions, and 26 percent in favoring neither marriage nor civil unions. Also, note that independents are very much like all respondents to the survey in their responses.

Another question from the same poll, but this one is on attitudes toward abortion:

Q40. What is your opinion on the availability of abortion? 
1. By law, abortion should never be permitted. (15%)
2. The law should permit abortion only in case of rape, incest or when the woman’s life is in danger. (29%)
3. The law should permit abortion for reasons other than rape, incest, or danger to the woman’s life, but only after the need for the abortion has been clearly established. (12%)
4. By law, a woman should always be able to obtain an abortion as a matter of personal choice. (38%)
5. Don’t know (6%)

Here’s how the responses break down by party identification:

Abortion
Never
Rape, Incest, etc.
Other than
Always

DK
Total
All
15
29
12
38
6
100
SD
4
15
8
69
4
100
WD
2
28
16
50
4
100
I
15
29
13
35
8
100
WR
17
32
18
29
4
100
SR
32
42
10
13
3
100
    
Again, note that a plurality of the survey’s respondents (38 percent) favors abortion on demand, and 41 percent favor permitting abortion under certain conditions. Only 15 percent believe that abortion should be outlawed. Thus, there seems to be a consensus that abortion should be legal, but the circumstances under which abortion could be obtained vary.

Do Democrats and Republicans differ on the abortion issue? Most definitely, they do. A plurality of strong Republicans (42 percent) would permit an abortion only in the case of rape, incest, or when the pregnant woman’s life is in danger. On the other hand, 69 percent of Democrats support the idea of abortion on demand. Again, independents reflect the opinions of all of the poll’s respondents on this question.

So, who’s correct? Is it Fiorina or Abramowitz? There is no doubt that on these two social issues, both of which are very divisive, there is a plurality that favors neither gay marriage nor civil unions and a larger plurality that favors abortion as a matter of personal choice by the pregnant woman. But there are competing positions that are supported by a large segment of the population on both issues. Furthermore, when we consider the position of partisans, especially strong partisans, the divide becomes deeper, and I would guess, more intense. What do you think?

I wrote this post before President Obama declared his support for gay marriage. His statements in the interview are making me question whether I placed gay marriage on the correct axis in my typology of ideologies. Should it be on the vertical axis—equality vs. individualism—rather than on the horizontal axis—individualism vs. social order? Mitt Romney, in response to President Obama's statement, stated that he favors tradition. What do you think about which ideas are involved?

2 comments:

  1. I tend to agree with Abramowitz. I think that two other considerations might be worth mentioning. First, the emergence of social issues in politics. Has the political parties' use of social issues to rally voters served to deepen the polarization of American society? Second, the impact of the modern media. Has the rise of media outlets (television, the internet, podcasts, etc.) that cater to a certain ideology, and select those stories most supportive of that ideology, further divided our society?

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  2. There's an interesting post on The Monkey Cage addressing the question: if same-sex marriage is so popular, why does it always lose at the ballot box? . The post is here: http://themonkeycage.org/blog/2012/05/15/if-same-sex-marriage-is-so-popular-why-does-it-always-lose-at-the-ballot-box-includes-state-level-data-on-support-and-legislation/. It includes state level data.

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