Texas Triangle: Harris County and Its Suburbs

 

Let’s start with the most populous county in Texas, Harris County, and its suburbs. There are nine counties that Wayne Thorburn considered in his study of Texas turning Red.[i] The map depicts Harris County and the nine suburban counties (Austin, Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Liberty, Montgomery, Waller, and Washington).

We will consider voting in Harris County and the nine suburban counties in elections between 2010 and 2020. In each case, we will consider the presidential election years (2012, 2016, and 2020) separately from the gubernatorial election years (2010, 2014, and 2018) because the electorates are different. Voter turnout is always higher in presidential election years. In each election, we will consider only the two-party vote and the vote in the contest with the highest number of votes.

Democrats have made some gains in gubernatorial election years, but the changes are minor. Table 1 depicts the votes during the gubernatorial election years in 2010 through 2018.

Table 1: Gubernatorial Election Years

In the three gubernatorial election years, the Republican percentage of the vote increased slightly from 54 percent to 58 percent between 2010 and 2014, only to slip considerable in 2018 (down to 48 percent. Most of the change was a result of a larger Democratic share of the Harris County vote. Among the nine suburban counties, the Democratic share of the vote increased by only about four percent between 2010 and 2018.

In 2010, Rick Perry, in his last gubernatorial contest, lost Harris County to former Houston mayor Democrat Bill White, but Perry won all of the suburban counties. His average was almost 63 percent of the vote. In 2014, Greg Abbott won Harris County and all of the suburban counties. In 2018, the contest that received the greatest number of votes was the U.S. Senate contest between Ted Cruz, the incumbent senator, and Beto O’Rourke, the Democratic challenger. Cruz lost Harris County rather dramatically and also lost Fort Bend County, one of the largest of the suburban counties.

During the midterm elections since 2010, the Democrats have gained a stronghold in Harris County. However, Democrats have been less successful.in spreading their support into the suburbs; only Fort Bend has flipped. Nevertheless, Brazoria County and Waller County might be counties where Democratic candidates could make some inroads into identifying and motivating Democrats to participate.

In presidential contests since 2012, Democrats have shown more growth. Table 2 depicts the results from the last three presidential contests:

Table 2: Presidential Election Years

In 2020, Biden won a majority of the vote in Harris County and the adjoining suburbs; however, his majority was dependent on a strong showing in Harris County. In the nine suburban counties, Biden lost by a large margin—41percent to Trump’s 59 percent. Biden also won Fort Bend County. Brazoria County’s support for the Republican presidential candidate has declined over the three elections, but the margin is still huge. Republican support in Montgomery County has also declined, but it still exceeds 70 percent of the vote.

Success in Harris County and its suburbs will probably come from an expansion of support in Harris and Fort Bend Counties. Additionally, efforts should be effected in parts of Brazoria County and, to a lesser extent, in Montgomery County. Grass-roots organization is essential to identify and turn out Democratic Party supporters.

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[i] Wayne Thorburn, Red State: An Insider’s Story of How the GOP Cam to Dominate Texas Politics. Austin: University of Texas Press, 2014.