Let’s start with the most populous county in Texas, Harris
County, and its suburbs. There are nine counties that Wayne Thorburn considered
in his study of Texas turning Red.[i] The map depicts Harris
County and the nine suburban counties (Austin, Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend,
Galveston, Liberty, Montgomery, Waller, and Washington).
We will consider voting in Harris County and the nine
suburban counties in elections between 2010 and 2020. In each case, we will
consider the presidential election years (2012, 2016, and 2020) separately from
the gubernatorial election years (2010, 2014, and 2018) because the electorates
are different. Voter turnout is always higher in presidential election years.
In each election, we will consider only the two-party vote and the vote in the
contest with the highest number of votes.
Democrats have made some gains in gubernatorial election
years, but the changes are minor. Table 1 depicts the votes during the gubernatorial
election years in 2010 through 2018.
Table 1: Gubernatorial Election Years
In the three gubernatorial election years, the Republican
percentage of the vote increased slightly from 54 percent to 58 percent between
2010 and 2014, only to slip considerable in 2018 (down to 48 percent. Most of
the change was a result of a larger Democratic share of the Harris County vote.
Among the nine suburban counties, the Democratic share of the vote increased by
only about four percent between 2010 and 2018.
In 2010, Rick Perry, in his last gubernatorial contest,
lost Harris County to former Houston mayor Democrat Bill White, but Perry won
all of the suburban counties. His average was almost 63 percent of the vote. In
2014, Greg Abbott won Harris County and all of the suburban counties. In 2018,
the contest that received the greatest number of votes was the U.S. Senate
contest between Ted Cruz, the incumbent senator, and Beto O’Rourke, the
Democratic challenger. Cruz lost Harris County rather dramatically and also
lost Fort Bend County, one of the largest of the suburban counties.
During the midterm elections since 2010, the Democrats have
gained a stronghold in Harris County. However, Democrats have been less
successful.in spreading their support into the suburbs; only Fort Bend has
flipped. Nevertheless, Brazoria County and Waller County might be counties
where Democratic candidates could make some inroads into identifying and motivating
Democrats to participate.
In presidential contests since 2012, Democrats have shown
more growth. Table 2 depicts the results from the last three presidential
contests:
Table 2: Presidential Election Years
In 2020, Biden won a majority of the vote in Harris County
and the adjoining suburbs; however, his majority was dependent on a strong
showing in Harris County. In the nine suburban counties, Biden lost by a large
margin—41percent to Trump’s 59 percent. Biden also won Fort Bend County.
Brazoria County’s support for the Republican presidential candidate has
declined over the three elections, but the margin is still huge. Republican
support in Montgomery County has also declined, but it still exceeds 70 percent
of the vote.
Success in Harris County and its suburbs will probably come
from an expansion of support in Harris and Fort Bend Counties. Additionally,
efforts should be effected in parts of Brazoria County and, to a lesser extent,
in Montgomery County. Grass-roots organization is essential to identify and
turn out Democratic Party supporters.
[i]
Wayne Thorburn, Red State: An Insider’s Story of How the GOP Cam to Dominate
Texas Politics. Austin: University of Texas Press, 2014.
