Constitutional Amendment Election Turnout

I predicted that voter turnout would be less than ten percent, and I was wrong. My error was in assuming that the early vote would constitute a larger share of the total vote than it did. Usually, more than half of the total vote is the early vote. In this election, only 40.09 percent of the total vote was the early vote. The total vote of 1,972,842 constituted 12.36 percent of the registered voters (15,962,988). Nine of the ten constitutional amendments were adopted, which means that the current number of constitutional amendments rises to 507. The only amendment that was not adopted was Proposition 1, which would have allowed municipal judges to hold more than one elected judicial position. The highest voter turnout was for Proposition 4, which amends the constitution to prohibit a tax on the incomes of individuals. The amendment that was adopted with the highest percentage of votes was proposition 10, which allows police dogs to be adopted by their handlers after the dog is retired from active duty. One propositions barely passed, which was proposition 9 that dealt with taxes on precious metals. The table demonstrates each proposition and the percentage of the vote for and against.

Proposition 1 PERCENT Yes 34.56% No 65.44% Proposition 2 PERCENT Yes 65.62% No 34.38% Proposition 3 PERCENT Yes 85.09% No 14.91% Proposition 4 PERCENT Yes 74.41% No 25.59% Proposition 5 PERCENT Yes 88.00% No 12.00% Proposition 6 PERCENT Yes 64% No 36% Proposition 7 PERCENT Yes 74.12% No 25.88% Proposition 8 PERCENT Yes 77.83% No 22.17% Proposition 9 PERCENT Yes 51.60% No 48.40% Proposition 10 PERCENT Yes 93.75% No 6.25%

Texas' Registered Voters Party Identification

The UT/Texas Tribune Poll for October 2019 shows little movement in party identification among Texas' registered voters.

PID of Texas Registered Voters

Election Day

Tomorrow, November 5, 2019, is Election Day. If you haven't voted early (as I did), then you need to get to any polling place in Travis County (if you're registered in Travis County) and cast your vote on ten constitutional amendments, one county proposition, and other issues, depending on where you reside.

I know, "Why should I vote?" Do the issues affect you? Yes, they do. There are several constitutional amendments that could affect you or people that you care about. For me, the most important constitutional amendment is Proposition 4, which, if adopted, will place a prohibition on an income tax in the Texas Constitution. I know that Texans hate an income tax. What are the alternatives if additional revenue is needed by the state to fund such essential services as public education, higher education, health care, transportation, as well as others that you can probably think of?

Only 4.98 percent of Texas' nearly 16 million registered voters have voted early. Your vote counts, and it counts for even more in low voter turnout elections, such as this special election. As an active citizen, make your views known by voting.

Early Voting Ends

Friday, November 1st, marked the end of early voting. The early vote in all 254 Texas counties came very close to five percent of registered voters in Texas, who number nearly 16 million. The fifteen largest counties produced a slightly lower voter turnout percentage. With only Election Day left for additional participants, the total vote will probably be less than ten percent of registered voters.

Here is the chart from all 12 days of early voting in the 15 largest counties in terms of registered voters:

Early Vote After Eleven Days

This is the last day of early voting in Texas for ten constitutional amendments, three special elections for Texas House seats, and many local propositions. After eleven days of early voter, only 3.93 percent of registered voters in Texas have weighed in one the amendments, special elections, and propositions. The chart compares voter turnout in 2019 with similar elections in 2015 and 2017. The 2019 results so far track between the two elections, slightly more similar to 2015 than to 2017. If the trend continues with a slight increase because it is the last day, fewer than five percent of registered voters will have voted early in this election.

A one percent increase will put the turnout at 4.87 percent in the counties with the largest number of registered voters and 4.93 in all 254 counties. When the totals are available from today's early vote, I'll predict total voter turnout.