When the Fact Check Isn't . . . .

Recently, a post on Facebook listed 31 effects of Project 2025, based on the proposals by the project's authors: Mandate for Leadership. The proposals list policy changes that a conservative president should promote. This is the post and the Facebook warning:


The fact check was performed by The Dispatch, which boasts that it is "the home for fact-based reporting on politics, policy, world events, religion, culture, economics, and law informed by conservative principles." Meta employs several fact-checkers for content, and The Dispatch is one of them.

So, let's check the fact checker. The claim is that the effect of proposals relating to income taxes is to "higher taxes for the working class."  

Alex Demas, author of the fact check, rates the statement: “Partly False. Under the plan’s tax proposal, Americans making less than $168,600 would pay a 15 percent income tax. While this rate would be a tax cut for many working Americans, individuals currently in the lowest two marginal tax brackets—those making less than $47,150 per year—would see a slight increase in rates.” https://thedispatch.com/article/viral-claims-about-project-2025-are-mostly-false/

The proposal in the Mandate for Leadership (p. 696) follows: 
"Intermediate Tax Reform. The Treasury should work with Congress to sim­plify the tax code by enacting a simple two-rate individual tax system of 15 percent and 30 percent that eliminates most deductions, credits and exclusions. The 30 percent bracket should begin at or near the Social Security wage base to ensure the combined income and payroll tax structure acts as a nearly flat tax on wage income beyond the standard deduction."

Checking the Fact Checker:

Using the income tax rates in 2023 and the median income for Texas ($45,970), a married couple, who each earned the median income, with no dependents and filing jointly would pay 10 percent on the first $22,000 (i.e. $2,200)and an additional 12 percent on the remaining $42,240 (i.e. $5,061). Consequently, after the standard deduction of $27,700, their taxable income would be $64,240. And their income tax would be $7,261.

Under the Project 2025 proposal, the same couple would be taxed at 15 percent for the entire $64,240 (i.e. $9,636).

The increase in their taxes is $2,375. That is a 32.7 percent increase in their taxes. Is that a “slight increase in the rate?” Perhaps the rate increase is slight, but the post doesn’t mention a tax rate increase. It maintains that the proposal results in higher taxes for the working class. The 32.7 percent increase in their tax bill is not “slight” by any means. That’s nearly $200 a month which is not disposable income.

Sources used in the calculation of taxes above:

2023 Income Tax Rates (IRS Form 1040)

Tax rate

Single filers

Married couples filing jointly

10%

$11,000 or less

$22,000 or less

12%

$11,001 to $44,725

$22,001 to $89,450

22%

$44,726 to $95,375

$89,451 to $190,750

24%

$95,376 to $182,100

$190,751 to $364,200
 

The median annual income for workers in every state: MAP: Median annual income in every U.S. state (cnbc.com)
  • Alabama: $41,350
  • Alaska: $56,140
  • Arizona: $47,680
  • Arkansas: $39,060
  • California: $54,030
  • Colorado: $54,050
  • Connecticut: $56,130
  • Delaware: $49,280
  • Florida: $45,070
  • Georgia: $45,480
  • Hawaii: $50,510
  • Idaho: $44,240
  • Illinois: $48,730
  • Indiana: $45,470
  • Iowa: $46,460
  • Kansas: $45,250
  • Kentucky: $43,730
  • Louisiana: $41,320
  • Maine: $47,590
  • Maryland: $55,810
  • Massachusetts: $60,690
  • Michigan: $46,940
  • Minnesota: $50,880
  • Mississippi: $37,500
  • Missouri: $45,080
  • Montana: $45,690
  • Nebraska: $46,440
  • Nevada: $44,810
  • New Hampshire: $49,980
  • New Jersey: $54,860
  • New Mexico: $43,620
  • New York: $56,840
  • North Carolina: $45,440
  • North Dakota: $48,830
  • Ohio: $46,690
  • Oklahoma: $41,480
  • Oregon: $50,010
  • Pennsylvania: $47,430
  • Rhode Island: $50,970
  • South Carolina: $42,220
  • South Dakota: $43,680
  • Tennessee: $43,820
  • Texas: $45,970
  • Utah: $47,020
  • Vermont: $49,630
  • Virginia: $49,920
  • Washington: $59,920
  • West Virginia: $39,770
  • Wisconsin: $47,590
  • Wyoming: $47,250

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