Monday, December 31, 2018

Who Voted in Texas in 2018 by Previous Participation in Elections

Michael Li posted this chart on Facebook. It shows the prior voting behavior of voters in the 2018 midterm election in Texas.







What strikes me is that 14 percent had no previous voting history, which leads one to believe that there were a lot of young people voting. That may not be the case. It could be people who have moved to Texas from other states, e.g. California. A majority (56 percent) had voted in a previous midterm in Texas--either in both midterms (33 percent) or one midterm (23 percent). Thirty percent had voted in a presidential election since 2012 (12 percent in both 2012 and 2016, and 18 percent in either 2012 or 2016).

Wednesday, December 26, 2018

Blast from the Past

With Trump's refusal to accept any compromise that doesn't include money for his "wall," I'm reminded of James David Barber's classification of presidential character types in his book, Presidential Character: Predicting Performance in the White House. Barber notes that character is one of three components of personality. It develops first, usually from interactions with parents and siblings, and is the most stable component. He defines it as the way a president orients himself towards life.

There are two components of character: (1) activity level denotes how a president engages in the presidency, being either active or passive; (2) positive or negative depicts the reasons that a person seeks the presidency in the first place and how he/she defines the role. A positive character type seeks the presidency to do good things for the nation. A negative character type seeks the presidency to overcome his/her own self doubts, to compensate for people's lack of respect and proper acknowledgement of his/her accomplishments/potential.

Consequently, there are four character types: Active-Positive, Passive-Positive, Active-Negative, or Passive-Negative. Barber contends that the best character type for the presidency is the Active-Positive: The person is active, fully engaging in the politics of the presidency, and Positive, sought the presidency to do good things for the American people. The most dangerous character type is the Active-Negative: Though fully engaged in the politics of the presidency, the person sought the presidency for personal reasons (compensation for low self-esteem) and refuses to compromise with other politicians after he/she has decided on a course of action. The defining characteristic is an unwillingness to compromise because compromise is viewed as a sign of weakness--a rigidity that can be disastrous for the person's presidency, but more importantly, for the nation.

You saw where I was going with this, didn't you. The end will not be pretty.

Sunday, December 23, 2018

Was Last Week the Crisis?

Almost two years ago, I wrote a post concerning presidential prerogative powers and President Trump.

Last week, President Trump, through a tweet, announced that the United States was pulling its troops from Syria and soon from Afghanistan. This action led to the resignation of Defense Secretary James Mattis. In his resignation letter, Mattis explained that the president deserved to have a defense secretary whose policy positions were more in line with the president's views. Mattis had tried to change the president's mind on withdrawal from Syria, but his lack of success led to his resignation.

Then, on Friday, the president allowed the government to be shut down over his desire for five billion dollars for a border wall. Although the president had previously stated publicly that he would be glad to carry the mantel of shutting down the government if he didn't get the wall, he subsequently blamed Democratic Party leaders for forcing the shut down. The president canceled his planned trip to Mar a Lago for a sixteen-day vacation and remained in Washington, D.C., despite the fact that the Senate does not plan to return to the Capitol until Monday.

The question is: Does the president win this crisis, pull the U.S. forces from Syria and get his border wall? And if he does, what are the consequences? Is the result frontlash, where the president is emboldened to expand his power and influence because the public agrees with his actions and the other branches concede him additional authority? Or is it backlash, where the president is reigned in by one of the branches because the public opposes his actions?

Part of the answer may be found in a series of public opinion polls on the wall:


Though Republican Party members show high support for the wall, Independents and Democratic Party members do not. Overall, support for the wall remains just under 40 percent. With the poll figure in mind, the question becomes the intensity of the public's opinion in opposition to the wall. Will President Trump pay a price if the government shut down lingers? Do Republican Senators oppose Trump, negotiate a deal with Democratic Senators, and send a compromise to President Trump? Next week may provide a clue as to the final result. It doesn't look pretty!

Thursday, December 13, 2018

Chart of Voter Turnout in 2014 and 2018

Even more revealing than the table of the fifty states' voter turnout is the chart depicting the turnout in 2014 and 2018.


Notice the variation among the states in terms of voter turnout in 2014 and the linear nature of voter turnout in 2018. Only two states--Alaska and Louisiana--had a decrease in voter turnout. The average increase in voter turnout was 13 percent. The article in the Tribune stresses the importance of competitive races and money in driving voter turnout, but the efforts of the political parties and other groups supporting various methods of contact--including, most importantly, block-walking--is testament to the argument that giving people a reason to vote is more important than reducing barriers to voting in increasing voter turnout. The importance of each factor--ease of registering to vote and mobilization of voters--would be an interesting research question.




Tuesday, December 11, 2018

Texas Voter Turnout in 2018 in Comparison

In the last post I mentioned the Texas Tribune's article on voter turnout. Here's a spread sheet that lists voter turnout (VEP) in 2014 and 2018 for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Texas was second worst in voter turnout in 2014 and worst among the states that elected governors in the election. Voter turnout is better, but Texas is still near the bottom. The states are arranged by voter turnout in 2018 from highest to lowest. Can Texas ever best Minnesota?

State
2014 Turnout
2018 Turnout
Difference
Minnesota
50.6
64.3
13.7
Colorado
54.7
62.9
8.2
Montana
47.5
62.0
14.5
Wisconsin
56.9
61.7
4.8
Oregon
53.4
61.5
8.1
Maine
58.7
60.2
1.5
Washington
43.1
58.9
15.8
North Dakota
45.0
58.6
13.6
Michigan
43.2
57.8
14.6
Iowa
50.3
57.7
7.4
Vermont
40.8
55.9
15.1
Georgia
38.6
55.0
16.4
Florida
43.3
54.9
11.6
Virginia
36.6
54.8
18.2
Massachusetts
44.7
54.6
9.9
New Hampshire
48.3
54.6
6.3
Alaska
54.8
54.6
-0.2
Connecticut
42.5
54.4
11.9
Missouri
33.6
53.6
20.0
Maryland
42.0
53.5
11.5
South Dakota
44.7
53.4
8.7
New Jersey
32.5
53.1
20.6
Nebraska
41.4
51.8
10.4
Ohio
36.2
51.5
15.3
Utah
30.3
51.4
21.1
Illinois
40.8
51.4
10.6
Pennsylvania
36.5
51.3
14.8
Delaware
34.9
51.1
16.2
Kansas
43.3
51.1
7.8
Idaho
39.8
50.1
10.3
North Carolina
41.1
49.6
8.5
California
30.7
49.5
18.8
Arizona
34.1
49.1
15.0
Wyoming
39.7
48.7
9.0
Kentucky
44.9
48.6
3.7
Rhode Island
42.4
48.0
5.6
Alabama
33.2
47.5
14.3
Nevada
36.6
47.5
10.9
New Mexico
35.4
47.3
11.9
Indiana
28.3
46.9
18.6
Texas
28.3
46.3
18.0
South Carolina
35.2
45.2
10.0
Louisiana
44.9
44.8
-0.1
Tennessee
29.8
44.7
14.9
District of Columbia
35.7
43.8
8.1
Oklahoma
30.0
42.5
12.5
West Virginia
32.0
42.5
10.5
New York
29.0
42.1
13.1
Arkansas
40.3
41.4
1.1
Mississippi
29.0
40.7
11.7
Hawaii
36.5
39.3
2.8

Source: Texas Tribune and US Elections Project, http://www.electproject.org/

Sunday, December 9, 2018

Voter Turnout in the 2018 Midterm

According to the Texas Tribune, Texas ranked sixth among the 50 states in increase in voter turnout compared to the last midterm election in 2014. However, Texas still ranks near the bottom in turnout of voting-eligible population, which is calculated by taking the number of votes cast and dividing it by the voting age population minus noncitizens and felons who have not had the voting rights restored.

Among Texas' 18,072,155 eligible voters, there were 8,371,655 votes cast in the contest for the U.S. Senate between incumbent Republican Ted Cruz and challenger Democrat Beto O'Rourke.


What is notable about the figure is that more than seven million Texans were registered but did not vote. Much less dramatic is the more than two million Texans who were not registered to vote. Consequently, changing Texas' restrictions on voter registration--to participate in an election, one must register at least 30 days prior to the election and there is no online voter registration--is less important in increasing voter turnout than mobilizing registered voters who, for some reason, do not participate.

Hopefully, the Texas legislature will consider removing the impediments to registration by adopting same-day registration and online registration; however, the political parties and affiliated groups will have to increase their mobilization efforts for Texans to be among the leaders in voter turnout among the states.