Analyzing the 2020 Texas Election: The Absence of Straight-ticket Voting

 In 2017, the Texas Legislature voted to eliminate straight-ticket, or one-punch, voting in Texas, but it did not go into effect until 2020. So, this election was the first without the ease and simplicity of voting a straight party ticket for Republican, Democratic, or Libertarian candidates.

When considering the effect of straight-ticket voting and its subsequent elimination, political scientists agree that voting will take longer to vote and that down-ballot contests will be affected to some extent by a larger roll-off than was experienced when straight-ticket voting was an option. Straight-ticket voting offers a heuristic method that allows people with limited information about the candidates to cast a rational vote, assuming that the party nominates candidates who reflect the party’s values and beliefs.

In Texas, straight-ticket voting was credited with wholesale shifts in the party affiliation of judges when counties swung from one party to the other party. For example, Dallas County experienced the effect as early as 2006, and Harris County felt the effect in 2016. Baker Botts LLP, a leading Texas law firm, noted the results after the 2018 general elections.

Democratic candidates have been making steady gains in urban district court races for years. Democrats already controlled every judgeship among Dallas County’s 39 district courts and Travis County’s 19 district courts, but they created a major shift in Harris County, winning all 37 district court seats that were up for election, each previously held by a Republican. Together with their 2016 sweep of all judicial races, judges elected on the Democratic ticket now control all 60 district benches in the state’s largest county. Only in Tarrant County (Fort Worth), where all 26 district judges were elected on the Republican ticket, and Bexar County, where Republicans still hold 5 of 27 district judgeships after a Democratic sweep on Tuesday, are there any Republican judges in the state’s largest five counties.

 

As a growing number of suburban counties in Texas have shifted from Republican to Democratic, additional counties experienced a loss of incumbent judges, many of whom had provided years of excellent service to their communities. In the studies of straight-ticket voting conducted by Austin Community College’s Center for Public Policy and Political Studies (CPPPS), the effect of straight-ticket voting on the electoral fortunes of District Court judges, who are elected countywide, were chronicled.

There was an anticipation that the absence of straight-ticket option would benefit Republican judicial candidates in district court contests in large urban counties, where Democrats had established a dominance in recent elections. The Republican Party’s hope was that roll-off would favor their candidates and staunch and ultimately reverse the trend of Democratic Party dominance in urban counties.

The roll-off rate did increase with the elimination of straight-ticket voting, but the increase was not as dramatic as Republicans had hoped. The table shows the roll-off rates in Harris, Dallas, and Tarrant Counties in the contested District Court contests:

As the table indicates, roll-off increased (In 2018, roll-off was less than two percent generally). In 2020, the roll-off in Harris County averaged 5.2 percent. In Dallas County, the roll-off averaged only 2.3 percent. In Tarrant County, the average roll-off was 4.2 percent.

The absence of straight-ticket voting in 2020 in major urban Texas counties begs the question: What was the effect? As Bruce Tomaso notes, the result was not what Republicans had hoped:

With all Harris County voting centers reporting, Democrats won all 14 civil District Court races on Tuesday’s ballot. In five of those 14 contests, the Democratic candidate ran unopposed; four of those five unopposed Democrats were incumbents.

In recent Texas elections, Democratic voters, and in particular Democratic minority voters, far more often voted a straight ticket than did their Republican counterparts. In those Texas counties where Democrats at the top of the ticket do best, including Harris and Dallas counties, straight-ticket voting was thought to confer a big advantage on down-ballot Democratic candidates, including candidates for the district court bench. Thus, the abolition of the straight-ticket vote was seen by many Republicans as giving hope to GOP candidates in down-ballot races.

The blue sweep in Harris County continues a trend that Republican leaders, including Nathan Hecht, chief justice of the Texas Supreme Court, find troubling.

In 2016, Democrats won 23 of 23 state district court races in Harris County. In 2018, it was 24 of 24.

Hecht, in his 2017 State of the Judiciary message, decried that among the GOP’s district court candidates who lost in 2016 were 11 sitting judges.

“Such partisan sweeps are demoralizing to judges and disruptive to the legal system,” he wrote.

Importantly, the effect has expanded into suburban counties surrounding the five largest Texas counties. Fort Bend County provides an example of the blue sweep making its way into suburban counties, even without straight-ticket voting. Although the roll-off rate in the four District Court contests averaged 5.9 percent, Democratic challengers defeated all four Republican incumbents.

The Republican candidates in 2020 outperformed President Trump, with the exception of James Shoemake. Democratic candidates, on the other hand, underperformed Democratic presidential challenger Joe Biden by an average of 19,439 votes. Nevertheless, every Democratic challenger prevailed.

The table below illustrates what has happened in Fort Bend County to Republican District Court candidates since the 2016 presidential election

In 2016, Republicans Brenda Mullinix and David Perwin ran unopposed. In 2020, both were defeated by Democratic challengers. In 2016, Republican Maggie Jaramillo defeated her Democratic challenger, but in 2020 she lost to her Democratic challenger by almost exactly the same margin.

In Tarrant County, which Biden barely won, the roll-off for Democratic candidates averaged 37,073 votes. The blue sweep obviously hit the rocks in Tarrant County. The incumbent Republican judges held all of their positions.

 

Despite the absence of straight-ticket voting, Democratic District Court candidates performed well in most urban counties. Where Democratic judicial candidates increased their vote was in those counties where Biden won by a healthy margin, and the suburban trend toward Democratic Party gains continued.

In many respects, the 2020 was unique. First, there was the COVID-19 pandemic. Second, early voting was extended from twelve to eighteen days. Third, and possibly most important, Trump was a polarizing figure, and as a result, most voters knew for whom they were going to vote well before election day. An indication of the interest and mindset of the voters is the fact that nearly 87 percent of the total vote cast occurred during early voting.

Nevertheless, the absence of the straight-ticket option did not result in a huge roll-off, and in the counties presented here, the Republican judicial candidates actually outperformed President Trump, and Democratic judicial candidates did not perform as well as former Vice President Biden. There is no doubt that the elimination of straight-ticket voting did not provide the boost to Republican judicial candidates that Republicans had hoped that it would. In the 2022 midterms, perhaps Republican candidates will see an improvement in their fortunes, but I wouldn’t bet on it.