Analyzing the 2020 Elections

 I have read and listened to several analyses of the 2020 elections in Texas, but I'm going to add my own interpretation and analysis. The number of registered voters in Texas increased substantially, and voter turnout also increased. Many analyses have criticized Democrats for their failure to produce a win in the presidential contest in Texas, win control of the Texas House, and increase their representation in Congress. I will consider voter turnout in this post and leave the other issues to subsequent posts.

First, the increase in registered voters and increased voter turnout should have been expected, given the intense interest by both Democratic and Republican partisans and leaners in the 2020 election. After all, Texas was considered in play in 2020. But was the increase that dramatic?

Voter turnout increased nationally and in the several states. In Texas, 1.9 million voters were added to the registered voter rolls between 2016 and 2020. Voter turnout in Texas also increased. In 2016, voter turnout was 51.4 percent of the voting eligible population in Texas. In 2020, voter turnout, as a percentage of the eligible voters, increased to 60.2 percent. In comparison with other states, Texas remained near the bottom in voter turnout. The United States Election Project estimates the voting eligible population (VEP) for every state in each election and calculates voter turnout. In 2020, Texas’ voter turnout was 60.2 percent of eligible voters and ranked 46^th among the 50 states and District of Columbia. Twenty states had voter turnout rates than exceeded 70 percent. The highest turnout rate was Minnesota’s 79.9 percent.

 

Source: United States Election Project: http://www.electproject.org/home/voter-turnout/voter-turnout-data.

Within Texas, who did (and did not vote) in 2020 is depicted in the chart below:

                                 Source: Texas SOS, calculations by author

The number of people who were registered but did not vote was 5.7 million. The question that immediately comes to mind is: Why did they not vote? With the enormous spending by candidates and PACs and the increased number of days of early voting, what kept such a large number of registered voters away from the polls: COVID-19 fears, voter suppression, lack of interest?

Voter turnout is usually considered in terms of the relationship between the “costs of voting”—those conditions that make it difficult or more costly to vote—and the “benefits of voting”—those factors that make the vote meaningful to a voter and increase a person’s motivation to vote. Those factors can be instrumental—casting the deciding vote in an election—or expressive—demonstrating a person’s commitment to a group, such as a political party, or expressing a concern about the outcome of the election related to person’s policy concerns, such as climate change.

There are several institutional procedures that affect the cost of voting. For example, early voting was promoted as a method of increasing voter turnout by reducing the cost of voting. However, research has demonstrated that early voting is primarily a convenience for voters rather than an incentive to vote, which would increase voter turnout. That is, early voting allows individuals who are already motivated to vote additional opportunities to vote rather than expanding the electorate and increasing voter turnout among the less motivated registered voters. In 2020, Texas increased the number of days of early voting from twelve to eighteen and included two weekends rather than the usual one weekend. The percentage of voters in Texas who voted during the extended early voting period—October 13^th to October 30^th—increased dramatically. In 2012 in Texas, 62.8 percent of the total vote was cast during the early voting period. In 2016, the percentage jumped to 73.2 percent. In 2020, the early vote of 9,677,963 votes constituted 86.2 percent of the total votes cast (11,231,799). With the increase in early voting, voter turnout in Texas increased by 8.8 percent—from 51.4 percent of eligible voters in 2016 to 60.2 percent of eligible voters in 2020. However, it is difficult to ascertain if that increase in turnout was attributable to the increase in early voting or to other factors, such as heightened interest in the election by Republicans and Democrats

What is necessary to increase voter turnout in Texas and move the state out of the bottom tier of states in terms of voter turnout?

States with the highest voter turnout rates exhibit a number of institutional arrangements that encourage voting. For example, same-day voter registration allows someone to register to vote on the day of the election at their voting location. Even better, some states have automatic voter registration so that a person is automatically registered when they reach the requirements for voting in the state. On the other hand, Texas requires individuals to register to vote at least 30 days prior to the election in which the individual wishes to participate. A comprehensive list of the so-called “costs of voting” indicates the voting requirements that encourage or discourage voter participation was created to indicate how easy or difficult the burden of voting is in each state.

An index of the cost of voting used the following criteria to rank the fifty states. The items in the criteria and the results are shown below. Both items are from an article by Scot Schraufnagel, Michael J. Pomante II, and Quan Li, Cost of Voting in the American States: 2020: https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/elj.2020.0666

 

Note that Texas has the highest cost of voting among the 50 states. Nevertheless, voter turnout in Texas was higher than some of the states that ranked better in terms of the cost of voting index, which indicates that the cost of voting is not the only, or maybe not even the most significant, factor in voter turnout. In fact, a Pearson product moment correlation calculation to show the relationship between a state’s voter turnout percentage and cost of voting index score in 2020 was .45, which is considered a moderate correlation.

The other component of voter turnout—the benefit of voting—is more difficult to measure because it is composed of a feeling by an individual about the meaningfulness of his or her vote. Ruy Teixeira, in The Disappearing American Voter, notes that political connectedness is what makes an individual feel that his or her vote is meaningful. Political connectedness increases through connection to political parties or other political groups, through involvement in public affairs, and through a sense of a responsiveness between an individual and the government.

The areas in which Texas can work to increase voter turnout include not only reducing the costs of voting but also creating connections between eligible voters and government as well as the public and private institutions that promote the individual’s awareness of the meaningfulness of his or her vote. Texas can do better.