What Would Have Been Necessary for Clinton to Win Texas in 2016?



On his Facebook News Feed, Michael Li posted this “imagined” map of the 2016 presidential election, speculating what would have happened if Hillary Clinton had “flipped” Texas.


He indicated that it wouldn’t have been easy and that he is less optimistic about Texas turning Blue than other people. Anyway, what would have changed the outcome? First the basics: Clinton lost to Trump by 807,179 votes out of 8,969,266 votes cast. Here’s a chart of voting eligible population and what they did in Texas in 2016:


Obviously, there were plenty of people who were registered to vote but did not vote—6.1 million. Now, using the exit polls, what would have had to change for Clinton to win? There are two ways to increase a candidate’s share of the vote: (1) increase the percentage of a category in the electorate that is likely to support your candidacy. For example, if females are more likely to support you, then increase the turnout of females so that they become a larger percentage of the voters; (2) grow the number of voters. For example, rather than 8.9 million voters, what would happen if one million more Texans voted? After all, there were 6.1 million Texans who were eligible to vote and registered but did not vote.

According to the exit polls, here’s the electorate in terms of demographics and percentage of the vote for Clinton and Trump:

Race/Ethnicity
Clinton
Trump
Gender
Clinton
Trump
Anglo (57%)
26%
69%
Male (46%)
37%
58%
African American (11%)
85%
11%
Female (54%)
49%
48%
Hispanic (24%)
61%
34%
Age
Clinton
Trump
Asian American (5%)
73%
27%
18-24 (10%)
58%
32%
Party Identification
Clinton
Trump
25-29 (8%)
51%
41%
Democrat (29%)
93%
5%
30-39 (19%)
46%
47%
Independent (33%)
39%
53%
40-49 (20%)
41%
55%
Republican (38%)
9%
88%
50-64 (28%)
39%
59%
Ideology
Clinton
Trump
65 and Older (15%)
36%
64%
Liberal (20%)
81%
12%
Income
Clinton
Trump
Moderate (36%)
55%
39%
< $30,000 (13%)
58%
35%
Conservative (44%)
15%
82%
$30,000 - $50,000 (17%)
45%
52%
Education
Clinton
Trump
$50K - $100,000 (31%)
46%
50%
HS or Less (17%)
49%
49%
$100K - $200,000 (26%)
45%
49%
Some College (32%)
41%
55%
$200,000 + (13%)
N/A
N/A
College Graduate (34%)
41%
53%


Postgraduate (17%)
48%
48%



First, we’ll see what happens if we change the composition of the electorate. In terms of race/ethnicity, if Clinton had increased the percentage of Hispanics who voted, would it have closed the gap? We can alter the percentages within reasonable numbers, and Clinton still doesn’t win. 

Race/Ethnicity (Exit Poll %)
% Voters
#  Voters
Clinton %
Clinton Vote
Trump %
Trump Vote
Anglo (57%)
54%
4,843,404
28%
1,356,153
67%
3,245,080
African American (11%)
11%
986,619
88%
868,225
8%
78,930
Hispanic (24%)
27%
2,421,702
65%
1,574,106
30%
726,511
Asian American (5%)
5%
448,463
73%
327,378
27%
121,085
Total/Average
97%
8,700,188
41.47%
4,125,862
41.93%
4,171,606

Notice that I’ve reduced the percentage of Anglo voters and given Clinton a larger percentage of the Anglo vote. I’ve also increased Clinton’s percentage of the African American vote. I’ve increased the percentage of Hispanic voters and given Clinton a larger percentage of the Hispanic vote. I’ve not made any changes to the percentage of Asian American voters or Clinton’s percentage of the Asian American vote. After all these changes, Trump still wins by 45,744 votes.

If we grow the electorate, the results look better. In this scenario, we will add nearly one million voters, alter the composition of the electorate only slightly, but the result will be more favorable to Clinton. Increasing the electorate by nearly one million is not unreasonable, given the fact that more than 6 million registered voters did not cast a vote. Also, in the registered voters are mobilized, they are more likely than not to be Hispanic and younger adults that are mobilized. So what are the figures?

Race/Ethnicity (Exit Poll %)
% Voters
#  Voters
Clinton %
Clinton Vote
Trump %
Trump Vote
Anglo (57%)
53%
5,273,500
28%
1,476,580
67%
3,533,245
African American (11%)
11%
1,094,500
88%
963,160
8%
87,560
Hispanic (24%)
28%
2,786,000
65%
1,810,900
30%
835,800
Asian American (5%)
5%
497,500
73%
363,175
27%
134,325
Total/Average
97%
9,651,500
46.37%
4,613,815
46.14%
4,590,930

Now, Clinton wins by 22,885 votes. That’s the ticket to a future Democratic presidential candidate’s victory in Texas. With the increase in voters to 9,651,500, voter turnout of the voting eligible population would increase from 51.2 to  56.8 percent, which is not unreasonable and below the national average of 58.9 in 2016.

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