Predicting Voter Turnout from Early Voting in the SOS Counties: An Update



First, I predicted the total early vote in the state based on an estimation of the percentage of the total early vote that the early votel in the SOS counties (the 15 most populous counties in Texas) would represent. I predicted that it could be 67.16 percent. In actuality, it was 67.32 percent, which made my estimate of the total early vote 5,950 votes more than the actual early vote.

Year
Day 12
Total EV
D12/TEV
2006
1,074,824
1,728,030
62.20%
2008
3,556,156
5,351,660
66.45%
2010
1,731,589
2,640,918
65.57%
2012
3,407,497
5,020,901
67.87%
2014
1,715,731
2,554,692
67.16%
Prediction
2014
1,715,731
2,548,742
67.32%
Actual

Then I used my prediction of the total early vote in the state to predict the total vote (early vote plus Election Day vote) for Texas. I predicted that the early vote percentage of the total vote would be the same as the percentage in 2010 (53.03 percent). It was actually 54.13 percent, which made my prediction of the total vote (4,817,446) 108,890 votes more than the actual total vote (4,708,556). The error was 2.31 percent.

Year
EV State
Total Vote
EV/TV

2006
1,728,030
4,399,068
39.28%
2008
5,351,660
8,077,795
66.25%
2010
2,640,918
4,979,870
53.03%
2012
5,020,901
7,993,851
62.81%
2014
2,554,692
4,817,446
53.03%
Prediction
2014
2,548,742
4,708,556
54.13%
Actural

Then I used my prediction of the total vote to calculate voter turnout (total vote/registered voters). My prediction was 34.35 percent. The actual turnout rate was 33.57 percent. The error was 2.3 percent. That's not bad!

Year
Total  Vote
Reg Voters
Voter T/O
2006
4,399,068
13,074,279
33.65%
2008
8,077,795
13,575,062
59.50%
2010
4,979,870
13,269,233
37.53%
2012
7,993,851
13,646,226
58.58%
2014
4,817,446
14,025,441
34.35%
Prediction
2014
4,708,556
14,025,441
33.57%
Actual

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