Predicting Turnout for the November 4, 2014 General Election in Texas



To predict the turnout, I’ll use the numbers available from the Texas Secretary of State for early voting in the 15 most populous counties in Texas. On November 1, 2014, total early votes from those counties should be available. 

Using the total number of early votes from those counties, which have historically constituted between 62-68 percent of the total number of statewide early votes in midterm elections, I’ll predict the total early vote. 

With the prediction of the total early vote, which in recent mid-term elections has constituted about 53 percent of the total vote, I’ll predict the total vote. Then, I’ll use that number to calculate the percentage of registered voters, which the Texas SOS calculates is 14,025,441, that voted. I expect the percentage to be between 40-42 percent.
Return on November 1st to see the calculations. For now, consider the following charts and tables for early voting in Texas.



The data on early voting in the 15 most populous counties can also be displayed as a percentage of the registered voters in those counties. The chart and table are below:



This table compares the early vote in the 15 most populous counties with the early vote in the state. Note that the early vote in the most populous 15 counties (as a percentage of the total early vote) varies between 66-67 percent in presidential election and between 62-66 percent in midterm elections.

Year
Day 12
Tot EV
D12/TEV
2006
1,074,824
1,728,030
62.20%
2008
3,556,156
5,351,660
66.45%
2010
1,731,589
2,640,918
65.57%
2012
3,407,497
5,020,901
67.87%

This table compares the statewide early vote to the total vote. Note that the percentage again varies depending on whether the election is a presidential or midterm election. 

Year
EV State
Tot Vote
EV/TV
2006
1,728,030
4,399,068
39.28%
2008
5,351,660
8,077,795
66.25%
2010
2,640,918
4,979,870
53.03%
2012
5,020,901
7,993,851
62.81%

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