Predicting the Republican Runoff Turnout




The results of early voting in the fifteen most populous counties have been released by the Secretary of State. The results are:
Republican Primary Runoff
15 Most Populous Counties
Cumulative Vote Totals

County
RO Day 1
RO Day 2
RO Day 3
RO Day 4
RO Day 5
Harris
21,071
29,505
37,704
46,329
59,122
Dallas
11,749
16,159
20,451
24,842
30,894
Tarrant
10,703
15,143
19,411
23,951
31,108
Bexar
7,386
10,693
13,952
17,284
22,436
Travis
3,289
4,876
6,634
8,312
10,972
Collin
5,307
8,560
11,566
14,678
19,532
El Paso
723
1,116
1,464
1,861
2,422
Denton
3,907
5,845
7,726
9,784
12,791
Ft. Bend
3,499
4,869
6,247
7,618
9,950
Hidalgo
299
416
554
706
924
Montgomery
6,158
9,507
12,702
15,734
20,093
Williamson
2,341
3,243
4,233
5,256
6,677
Galveston
2,650
4,100
5,428
7,214
9,481
Nueces
1,463
2,175
2,827
3,433
4,203
Cameron
359
498
636
749
943
Total
80,904
116,705
151,535
187,751
241,548

In the first Republican primary election, there were 365,423 early votes in the 15 most populous counties and 1,337,875 votes cast in the Republican gubernatorial primary. The early votes constituted 27.31 percent of the total votes cast.
Using the estimated early votes in the Republican runoff (241,548) and estimating that the early votes in the 15 most populous counties will constitute a slightly larger percentage of the total vote (29.67 percent), the estimated vote total in the Republican runoff will be between 789,692 and 838,538 votes (814,115 plus or minus 3 percent). What’s your estimate?

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