On December 4th, in a guest column for the Texas Tribune, Professor Mark Jones
wrote that Anglo women are the key for Texas Democrats in the 2014 elections:
The result for Senator Wendy Davis “will depend in large part on her ability to
make substantial inroads, via both mobilization and persuasion, among the
state’s female voters—especially Anglo women.” Jones’ analysis is based largely
on a recount of Ann Richards’ election campaigns in 1990 and 1994, with a nod
towards White’s campaign in 2010. He continues that “. . . Davis will need to
make deep inroads among Anglos, especially Anglo women, who will make up about
a third of voters, if she has any hope of defeating Abbott.” Jones acknowledges
the increased percentage of the “Democratic-leaning non-Anglo electorate over
the past 20 years,” he nonetheless emphasizes the role of Anglo women in any
possibility of a Davis victory. According to Jones, “If they [Anglo women]
flock to Davis, or away from Abbott, a la 1990, Davis will be sworn in as governor
in 2015.”
Let’s focus on what Davis needs to do to win in November
2014, examining the Texas population and possible routes to a Davis victory
over Greg Abbott. First, the population numbers:
2014
|
Total
|
All
|
26,071,202
|
<18
|
6,955,161
|
18-24
|
2,616,413
|
25-44
|
7,157,118
|
45-64
|
6,312,663
|
65+
|
3,029,847
|
Source: Texas State Data Center, 2012 projections for 2014
Using a projected Voting Age Population of 19,116,041 and
estimating a registration rate of 71 percent for all Voting Age Texans, the
registered voters should be 13,572,389. If voter turnout is 40 percent of the
registered voters, there should be 5,428,956 votes cast in the 2014
gubernatorial election.
Using the projections by race and ethnicity, the following
table shows the percentages of each race/ethnicity:
Anglo
|
African
American
|
Hispanic
|
Other
|
|
Total Population
|
44.09%
|
11.46%
|
38.85%
|
5.60%
|
Voting Age Population
|
48.01%
|
11.46%
|
35.02%
|
5.52%
|
Now, the real assumptions and projections enter in to
calculate the electorate in November 2014:
Anglo
|
African
American
|
Hispanic
|
Other
|
|
2014
CVAP*
|
52.08%
|
12.82%
|
29.99%
|
5.10%
|
2014
RV**
|
54.60%
|
13.44%
|
24.78%
|
4.22%
|
2014
TO Rate
|
44.00%
|
45.00%
|
34.80%
|
30.00%
|
2014
% of Electorate
|
60.06%
|
15.12%
|
21.56%
|
3.16%
|
*Citizen Voting Age Population **Registered Voters
The data in the table are based on the following
assumptions: Anglo CVAP is 95 percent of the Anglo VAP, and RV is 85 percent of
the CVAP; African American CVAP is 98 percent of the VAP, and RV is 85 percent
of the CVAP; Hispanic CVAP is 75 percent of the VAP, and RV is 67 percent of
the CVAP; Other CVAP is 67 percent of the VAP, and RV is 67 percent of the
CVAP.
So, how can Wendy capture enough votes to win the
gubernatorial election? First, if the calculations above are accurate and she
wins 38 percent of the Anglo vote, 80 percent of the African American vote, 70
percent of the Hispanic vote, and 60 percent of the Other vote, she will have accumulated
2,818,213 votes, 51.9 percent of the vote. Second, are the percentages of the
various racial/ethnic groups feasible? In 2010, Democrat Bill White won 29
percent of the Anglo vote, which exit polls estimated made up 67 percent of the
electorate, 88 percent of the African American vote (13 percent of the electorate),
61 percent of the Hispanic vote (17 percent of the electorate), and an
uncalculated percentage of the Asian American and Other vote, (3 percent of the
electorate). She will need to increase the percentage of the Anglo vote over
what White received. Also, the Anglo percentage of the total vote must decrease
considerably (from 67 percent to 60 percent) due to an increase in the African
American share of the vote (from 13 percent to 15 percent) and a larger
increase in the Hispanic share of the vote (from 17 percent to nearly 22
percent). Third, the logical place to increase the percentage of the Anglo vote
is Anglo women. White won only 30 percent of the votes cast by Anglo women, and
they made up one-third of the electorate. White did much better among African
American women (93 percent) and Hispanic women (65 percent). Fourth, she needs
to increase the turnout of young voters of all races/ethnicities and minority
voters, both Hispanics and Asian Americans, of all ages.
What are the routes to a Wendy win? There are several
possible scenarios, and they involve more than just doing better with Anglo
women. Can it be done? As I posted earlier: Definitely!
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