More on the Texas Senate Contest

 In the last post, I provided a look at partisan and independents' preferences in the Texas Senate contest among Republican Ken Paxton, Democrat James Talarico, and Libertarian Ted Brown. This post considers the preferences of Texas registered voters according to sex, ethnicity, and age. The chart depicts the crosstabs from the August Texas Poll Report.

























What are the key takeaways? There are interesting results in each category. Let's work our way down the chart.
  • First, among the age categories, Paxton is preferred by nearly a majority of Texas registered voters who are 65 years of age or older. Talarico trails, however, by only 4 percent. Also, the elderly are the least likely to be not sure. As the age categories become younger, Talarico's percentage becomes equal to Paxton's percentage among Texas registered voters who are between 30 and 64 years of age. Among the youngest category, Talarico has nearly a majority.
  • Second, among the five ethnic categories, Paxton does best with White registered Texans and worst with Black registered Texans. Talarico's largest percentage is with Black registered Texans. He also does well with Other, Asian, and Hispanic registered Texans.
  • Third, Paxton is supported by nearly a majority of males, and Talarico has nearly a majority of female registered Texans.
  • Among undecided registered Texans, the categories with the largest percentages are Other ethnicities, Asians, and 18-29 year olds.
Again, the large percentage of Texas registered voters who are undecided is a reason to be cautious in trying to predict the General Election result.  Both candidates must organize and mobilize their supporters if they are to prevail in November. Nevertheless, Talarico supporters should be optimistic but not complacent.

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