Texas Politics & Government: Ideas and Institutions

 The map is a reminder of the counties that comprise the Texas Triangle. An initial examination of the Texas Triangle includes a correlation between ethnicity and the Biden vote in 2020. Since Biden did poorly among Anglos and less well than Hillary Clinton in 2016 among Hispanics, one might expect those correlations to be modest. Biden and other Democrats have had trouble with support from Anglo voters in Texas for some time, drawing a small percentage of their votes since the realignment of Anglos in the 1990s and 2000s. So the correlation is expected to be negative and fairly strong. Remember that correlation shows a relationship between variables, and the correlation can be spurious and meaningless. But, ethnicity is a factor in voting behavior as well as partisanship, and thus, it should indicate where Democratic candidates are doing well and where they can improve. This table shows the data from which the correlations were constructed as well as the Pearson Product Moment cor...

It’s not as dangerous as the Golden Triangle in Southeast Asia, but it could be nearly as dangerous for Republicans in future Texas elections. I believe that it’s where the efforts to identify and turn out Democrats should be concentrated. The Texas Triangle includes 67 of Texas’ 254 counties. It includes counties that connect The Dallas—Fort Worth Metroplex, San Antonio, and Houston. It’s basically outlined by the interstate highways that connect the Metroplex with Houston (IH 45), Houston with San Antonio (IH 10), and San Antonio with the Metroplex (IH 35). Although it includes only 25.4 percent of Texas’ counties, it contains 74.4 percent of Texas’ projected population in 2019. That’s 21.6 million people. To get an idea of the demographics of these 67 counties, an alphabetical list with the ethnic composition of the population of each county as estimated in 2019 follows: Where does the work need to be done to flip Texas, turning it Blue? Here are the results of the 2020 presidenti...

 The October 2020 University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll indicates little change in party identification in Texas preceding the November 3rd general election. The question is: Generally, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent? The follow-up question for independents is: Do you consider yourself a pure independent or do you lean towards the Republican or Democratic Party? For partisans, the question is: Do you consider yourself a strong or not so strong Republican (for Republicans) or do you consider yourself a strong or not so strong Democrat (for Democrats)?  The result is this seven point scale: The strong Republicans exceed the strong Democrats by 4 percent, but otherwise, the percentages are similar between the two parties. Independents, depending how you count "leaners," are either 13 or 37 percent. The Texas Poll considers "leaners" as partisans because their voting behavior is similar to weak partisans, and in fact, they are actually ...

  In 2017, the Texas Legislature voted to eliminate straight-ticket, or one-punch, voting in Texas, but it did not go into effect until 2020. So, this election was the first without the ease and simplicity of voting a straight party ticket for Republican, Democratic, or Libertarian candidates. When considering the effect of straight-ticket voting and its subsequent elimination, political scientists agree that voting will take longer to vote and that down-ballot contests will be affected to some extent by a larger roll-off than was experienced when straight-ticket voting was an option. Straight-ticket voting offers a heuristic method that allows people with limited information about the candidates to cast a rational vote, assuming that the party nominates candidates who reflect the party’s values and beliefs. In Texas, straight-ticket voting was credited with wholesale shifts in the party affiliation of judges when counties swung from one party to the other party. For example, D...