Perhaps the greatest disappointment for Texas Democrats in 2020 was the failure to win control of the Texas House. In 2018, Texas took twelve seats that had been in Republicans’ hands. That put Texas Democrats within nine seats of winning a majority in the 150 member Texas House. Since the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senator had carried several Texas House districts in his bid to unseat Republican Senator Ted Cruz, Democrats felt energized.
Professor Mark Jones, writing for the Rice University
Institute for Texas Politics, listed six Texas House Districts as toss ups:
Shaheen (R-HD 66), Leach (R-HD 67), open seats in HD 92 & HD 96, Button
(R-HD 112), and Davis (R-HD 134). The so-called Beto Nine included Davis (R-HD
134), Meyer (R-HD 108), Button (R-HD 112), Bohac (R-HD 138, Shaheen (R-HD 66),
Leach (R-HD67), Miller (R-HD 26), and Stucky (R-HD 64).
In addition to the Beto Nine districts, Democrats targeted
thirteen House Districts that Beto lost by ten percent or less in 2018. The
complete list is in Table 1:
Table 1: Texas Democratic Party Targeted
Districts
Note the location of the targeted House Districts. Five are
in Harris County; five are in Tarrant County; two are in Dallas County, two are
in Collin County, two are in Fort Bend County; and one is in each of the
remaining counties: Denton, Bexar, Bell, Brazos, Nueces, and Brazoria. They are
best described as core urban or suburbs to those core urban counties.
What were the results in those counties and districts? In Harris
County, the House District that was most supportive of Beto in 2018 also
resulted a Democratic flip of the District. One of the more moderate
Republicans in the Texas House, Sarah Davis, was defeated by Democrat Ann
Johnson. Harless also won reelection.
In Dallas County, Meyer retained his seat in the Texas
House, winning by one percent. Button also retained her seat, winning by less
than one percent of the vote. In HD 138, Republican Hull won by three
percent. In neighboring Collin County, Shaheen
and Leach won reelection by one and three percent, respectively.
In Tarrant County, Republican David Cook won in an open
seat by five percent in HD 96; Goldman won reelection in HD 97; Matt Krause won
reelection in HD 93; Republican Jeff Cason won an open seat contest in HD 92; and
Tony Tinderholt won by four percent in HD 94.
In Fort Bend County, Republican Jacey Jetton won an
open-seat contest in HD 26, and Republican Gary Gates won an open-seat contest
in HD 28.
In Denton, Bexar, Brazos, Nueces, and Brazoria Counties,
Republican representatives won reelection. In HD 54, which includes Lampasas
County as well as Bell County, Stucky was reelected.
Although the Democrats picked up one seat, one of the twelve Democrats elected in 2018—Gina Calanni—was defeated by a Republican challenger (Mike Schofield), which means that the partisan composition of the Texas House in the 87th Legislature will be 83 Republicans and 67 Democrats, exactly the same as in the 86th Legislature.
In some contests, the Democrats came close to defeating
incumbent Republicans. For example, Brandy Chambers came within 222 votes of
defeating Angie Chen Button. Other contests in which the Republican margin of
victory was fewer than 5,000 votes included both contests in Collin County, two
contests in Harris County, one contest in Fort Bend County, and three contests
in Tarrant County. Those nine contests could have provided the necessary nine-seat
gain that Democrats needed to control the Texas House. Should Democrats take
solace in these contests?
Perhaps the best conclusion is that Texas Democrats are
competitive in Texas House races in the suburban counties surrounding the core
metropolitan counties but winning additional seats will require more
organization and a coordinated ground game. And the way to achieve that goal
for Democrats is to adopt the system employed by Blue Action Democrats. The
SWATX Blue Action Democrats have established a model based on precinct
organization and block captains, who work their neighborhoods to identify and
get out the vote for Democratic candidates.
BLUE ACTION DEMS - Blue Action Democrats
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