Analyzing the 2020 Elections (part Trois)

 Perhaps the greatest disappointment for Texas Democrats in 2020 was the failure to win control of the Texas House. In 2018, Texas took twelve seats that had been in Republicans’ hands. That put Texas Democrats within nine seats of winning a majority in the 150 member Texas House. Since the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senator had carried several Texas House districts in his bid to unseat Republican Senator Ted Cruz, Democrats felt energized.

Professor Mark Jones, writing for the Rice University Institute for Texas Politics, listed six Texas House Districts as toss ups: Shaheen (R-HD 66), Leach (R-HD 67), open seats in HD 92 & HD 96, Button (R-HD 112), and Davis (R-HD 134). The so-called Beto Nine included Davis (R-HD 134), Meyer (R-HD 108), Button (R-HD 112), Bohac (R-HD 138, Shaheen (R-HD 66), Leach (R-HD67), Miller (R-HD 26), and Stucky (R-HD 64).

In addition to the Beto Nine districts, Democrats targeted thirteen House Districts that Beto lost by ten percent or less in 2018. The complete list is in Table 1:

Table 1: Texas Democratic Party Targeted Districts


Source: Texas Democratic Party: Texas Democrats Announce 22 Targeted State House Districts Ahead of 2020 | Texas Democratic Party January 2020

Note the location of the targeted House Districts. Five are in Harris County; five are in Tarrant County; two are in Dallas County, two are in Collin County, two are in Fort Bend County; and one is in each of the remaining counties: Denton, Bexar, Bell, Brazos, Nueces, and Brazoria. They are best described as core urban or suburbs to those core urban counties.

What were the results in those counties and districts? In Harris County, the House District that was most supportive of Beto in 2018 also resulted a Democratic flip of the District. One of the more moderate Republicans in the Texas House, Sarah Davis, was defeated by Democrat Ann Johnson. Harless also won reelection.

In Dallas County, Meyer retained his seat in the Texas House, winning by one percent. Button also retained her seat, winning by less than one percent of the vote. In HD 138, Republican Hull won by three percent.  In neighboring Collin County, Shaheen and Leach won reelection by one and three percent, respectively.

In Tarrant County, Republican David Cook won in an open seat by five percent in HD 96; Goldman won reelection in HD 97; Matt Krause won reelection in HD 93; Republican Jeff Cason won an open seat contest in HD 92; and Tony Tinderholt won by four percent in HD 94.

In Fort Bend County, Republican Jacey Jetton won an open-seat contest in HD 26, and Republican Gary Gates won an open-seat contest in HD 28.

In Denton, Bexar, Brazos, Nueces, and Brazoria Counties, Republican representatives won reelection. In HD 54, which includes Lampasas County as well as Bell County, Stucky was reelected.



  Although the Democrats picked up one seat, one of the twelve Democrats elected in 2018—Gina Calanni—was defeated by a Republican challenger (Mike Schofield), which means that the partisan composition of the Texas House in the 87th Legislature will be 83 Republicans and 67 Democrats, exactly the same as in the 86th Legislature.

In some contests, the Democrats came close to defeating incumbent Republicans. For example, Brandy Chambers came within 222 votes of defeating Angie Chen Button. Other contests in which the Republican margin of victory was fewer than 5,000 votes included both contests in Collin County, two contests in Harris County, one contest in Fort Bend County, and three contests in Tarrant County. Those nine contests could have provided the necessary nine-seat gain that Democrats needed to control the Texas House. Should Democrats take solace in these contests?

Perhaps the best conclusion is that Texas Democrats are competitive in Texas House races in the suburban counties surrounding the core metropolitan counties but winning additional seats will require more organization and a coordinated ground game. And the way to achieve that goal for Democrats is to adopt the system employed by Blue Action Democrats. The SWATX Blue Action Democrats have established a model based on precinct organization and block captains, who work their neighborhoods to identify and get out the vote for Democratic candidates.


BLUE ACTION DEMS - Blue Action Democrats

 

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