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Showing posts from November, 2016

So, the Election’s Over. Now What?

I was terribly anxious before the election, fearing that Trump might somehow win. I was not expecting that result, but it happened. First, here’s what I’m NOT going to do: (1) blame Hillary, explaining the defeat through her candidacy; (2) claim that identity politics is at fault because all politics is identity politics; (3) retreat into a cocoon by only engaging with people who share my political views. So, what am I going to do? First, there are a number of books that I need to read. I have read Hillbilly Elegy , which was helpful, but my list of additional books contains some of those reviewed by Robert Kuttner here . First is John B. Judis’ The Populist Explosion: How the Great Recession Transformed American and European Politics . Second are two books about the people who contributed the most to Trump’s candidacy and victory in the Electoral College: Arlie Russell Hochschild’s Strangers in Their Own Land: Anger and Mourning on the American Right , and Catherine J. C...

Why Businesspersons with No Political Experience “Suck” as Politicians

What is it that makes people believe that someone’s business experience is transferable to being a political leader in a democracy, such as the United States? I found an interesting article in Governing: The States and Localities magazine, written by Louis Jacobson in 2012. I would suggest reading the entire article, but here are the most important, in my opinion, takeaways: Strengths in Campaigning: 1.        Being an outsider 2.        Personal wealth 3.        Leadership, charisma and experience at selling a plan Drawbacks in Campaigning: 1.        Lack of familiarity and finesse with key policy issues 2.        Risk of being plagued by past business problems 3.        Difficulty dealing with the media Strengths in Governing: 1.        Experience wi...

The Character of Donald Trump

I am a big fan of Stanley Renshon and his books on presidential character , especially on Bill Clinton and George W. Bush . Consequently, I decided to look for anything that he may have written about Donald J. Trump. I found an article on BuzzFeed by its editor-in-chief, Ben Smith. Here are some excerpts: Fortunately, Renshon, a practicing psychoanalyst who also has a Ph.D. in political science and teaches at the City University of New York Graduate Center, has thought a lot about Trump. His desktop “Trump” folder has accumulated more than a thousand files. He has read all the interviews. And he thinks he’s isolated Trump’s key characteristics in a couple of telling turns of phrase. One is Trump’s tic of telling you how much others like him. (emphasis added) “I think he actually, believe it or not, he has a need to be liked,” says Renshon. “He’ll use the phrase ‘he likes me’ or ‘they like me.’ When somebody uses that phrase often, you have to give credit to the idea th...

Early Vote in Texas in 2016

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The early vote in Texas in the 15 counties with the largest number of registered voters (SOS counties) increased dramatically in 2016, both in the number and in the percentage of voters. There is no doubt that early voting is a hit in Texas, but does early voting lead to greater turnout? In 2016 in Texas, the answer is: No. Most studies of the effects of early voting on voter turnout show a limited effect, in the range of a few percent. That's what happened in Texas. In the SOS counties, early voting started with a huge increase on the first day, dropped to a reduced, but steady growth, took its normal Sunday dip on Day 8, and then slowly rose until the last day, when voters rushed to the polls so that they wouldn't have to brave the long lines on Election Day. The charts tell the story: The story, however, doesn't end here. The SOS counties, as a percentage of the state's total early vote has risen in each election since 2008. In 2016, the percentage increased ...

Straight-ticket Voting in Texas: 2016

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Texas is one of only ten states that allows straight-ticket voting (Alabama, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas, and Utah). Straight-ticket voting has been instrumental in the success of Republican candidates for statewide office in Texas, where no Democrat has been elected since 1994.  In 2016, in 25 large Texas counties, the straight-ticket vote helped candidates in countywide elections. For example, in Harris County, every Democratic candidate for District Court Judge—24 were elected—won, and in the process, eleven Republican incumbents were defeated. The size of the straight-ticket vote in those 25 counties is depicted in the table below: County Total Vote ST Vote Rep ST Dem ST % ST % Rep % Dem HARRIS 1,304,480 885,903 401,255 471,290 67.91% 45.29% 53.20% DALLAS 750,649 508,910 182,784 317,100 6...