Texas Politics & Government: Ideas and Institutions

  The Texas Tribune/University of Texas Poll results: 34 Percent Republican Party; 29 Percent Democratic Party; 37 Percent Independent.

Mark P. Jones published the Lib-Con scores of Texas Senators in the regular and special sessions in 2023. The score is based on votes in the Texas Senate during those sessions. Link to Flourish Publication

  Derek Ryan posted the following chart depicting who voted on the Texas Constitutional Amendments in November 2023.  I decided to perform a similar study using data that I collected on registered voters in Travis County precinct 450. The data included all registered voters who voted in the 2022 Democratic Primary election. I then used the data from the Texas Secretary of State to determine who among the 2022 Democratic Primary voters also voted in the November 2023 Constitutional Amendment election. The results are depicted below: The chart depicts the number of votes cast in Precinct 450, the number and percentage of Democrats who voted on each day of early voting, the total early vote, and the Election Day vote. Democratic voters constituted nearly 40 percent of early voters and nearly 35 percent of Election Day voters in precinct 450. Overall, Democratic Party primary voters in 2022 constituted 37.2 percent of the total votes in precinct 450. Interestingly, in the purporte...

  The votes are calculated by the Texas Secretary of State although there will some time before the results are official. Anyway, here is the voter turnout for all 254 Texas counties based on the unofficial results. Thirteen of the fourteen proposed amendments passed, bringing the total amendments to 530.

  Early voting is completed and posted by the Texas Secretary of State for all 254 counties in Texas. What will Election Day produce in terms of voter turnout? My prediction is that about 10 percent of Texas registered voters will vote on Election Day (November 7th), and the total will be about 17 percent (plus or minus 2 percent). The chart depicts the early vote, Election Day vote, and total vote in the Constitutional Amendment special elections in 2019 and 2021. It also includes my projection for 2023.

  This chart depicts the results of early voting in Texas in 2019, 2021, and 2021. The results, when finalized later today, will provide a clue as to the total voter turnout in the 2023 November election in Texas. Election Day is November 7, 2023. If you haven't voted yet, be sure to go to the polls (any location in Travis County displaying the "Vote Here" sign) and express your choice on the 14 Constitutional Amendment Propositions and two Travis County bond proposals. https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/15563728/

 In the chart below, early voting in Texas is depicted for November 2019, November 2021, and November 2023. As you can see, voter turnout is surpassing the vote in both 2019 and 2021. Part of the explanation might be the fact that Houston (Harris County) is electing its mayor and council members as well as the fourteen Propositions to amend the Texas Constitution. I will update the chart when the early voting period is complete (November 3rd). I will also predict the total voter turnout. Stay tuned.

On November 7, or before the Election Date during early voting, Texas' registered voters will be asked to approve 14 amendments to the Texas Constitution.  If the past offers any guidance to the future, few Texans will vote, and most amendments will be approved. In the 7 special elections to approve constitutional amendments since 2011, voter turnout averages 8.56 percent of registered voters. In those same special elections, Texas voters considered 53 proposed amendments and approved 49 of them (92.45 percent).  Please consider each amendment and vote early or on election day. Below are my considerations and recommendations.    TEXAS CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS   Constitutional Amendment Election (November 7, 2023 )   Proposition 1 Proposition 1 creates a new right for people to engage in generally accepted farm, ranch, timber production, horticulture, and wildlife management practices on land they own or lease. This changes the ability of the state and loc...

 Shortly after the end of the 88th Legislature's regular session, The Texas Tribune posted charts depicting the Democratic and Republican House members DW-Nominate scores for contested votes during the regular session. The charts indicate a liberal Democratic Party and a moderate Republican Party. Let's compare the two parties in terms of their members: First, the Republican Party: The Republicans range from conservative to somewhat liberal in their DW-Nominate scores. Any score greater than zero (a positive score) is conservative; any score less than zero (a negative score) is liberal. The most conservative Republican is Jared Patterson at 0.454, followed by Briscoe Cain, Cody Vasut, Steve Toth, and Tony Tinderholt. The mean for all Republicans is -0.08, and the median is 0.00, which means that half of Republicans are above 0.00, and half are below 0.00. The most liberal Republican is J.M. Lozano at-0.61, followed by Morgan Meyer, Todd Hunter, Charlie Geren, and John Raney. S...

 One of the most important concepts in political science is party identification. As it was originally conceived, party identification (PID) was considered a psychological attachment to a political party. It was formed early and not likely to change. The parties were thought to represent different positions on public policy issues of the day. In a sense, it was a logical attachment to a set of ideas, or an ideology. However, both major parties in the United States were not sorted ideologically, since both parties contained liberals, moderates, and conservatives. Currently, the conception of political parties is more a social identity rather than a shorthand for positions on public policies. The acquisition of party identification is also viewed differently. Party identification is not inherited from one's family; it is acquired through a series of social identities held by an individual. The figure demonstrates the process and its possible results: As people have sorted based on so...

 In Red State: An Insider's Story of How the GOP Came to Dominate Texas Politics , Wayne Thorburn describes the transition in Texas from a one-party Democratic state to a two-party state and ending as a one-party Republican state. The transition took decades, from the 1970s to the early 2000s. Over a thirty year span, Republicans came to control all of the statewide offices in Texas, a majority of the Texas congressional delegation, and both chambers of the Texas legislature. Thorburn identifies several factors in the 1970s and 1980s that assisted Republicans in dominating Texas politics and government: (1) John Tower’s senatorial victory in 1961 had consequences for Texas Republicans throughout the 1970s; (2) Liberal Democrats were effective in taking control of the Democratic Party during the 1980s and purging the party of conservative Democrats; (3)  the victory of Bill Clements in the 1978 gubernatorial election over John Hill, the liberal Democrat; and (4) the election o...

  If you're reading this blog to understand voting in the 71 Texas counties that comprise 90 percent of the registered voters in Texas, and you're not depressed yet, then this post should do it for you. Or, like me, you could look for something positive that would mobilize you to make a difference in the 2024 general election. Here are remaining counties. The picture is not pretty! Of the 38 counties in this final group of Texas counties, Beto won only two counties (Maverick County and Starr County). Note that voter turnout in those counties was extremely low; only 28 percent of the registered voters participated in Maverick County and only 32 percent in Starr County. Overall, Abbott won the 38 counties by a margin of 450,054 votes, garnering more than three out of every four votes cast.  Unfortunately, being realistic is necessary when analyzing Democratic prospects in these counties. The only optimism can be found in the possibilities in Bastrop County, where Beto received n...

  As we consider the second group of Texas counties, we should note that Democratic Party candidate Beto O'Rourke won only four of the 23 counties. Overall, Beto lost this set of counties by 483,219 votes. On the other hand, Governor Abbott won 63.6 percent of the two-party vote in the counties.   What do the counties that Beto won indicate for what Democrats can do in 2024 to garner more votes? First, note that voter turnout is extremely low in three (Webb, Hidalgo, and Cameron Counties) of the four counties, averaging 33.5 percent of the vote. In the county that Beto won with the highest percentage of the vote (Webb County), voter turnout was a paltry 31.1 percent of registered voters. Only Hays County featured turnout that exceeded half of the registered voters. Obviously, voter turnout among Democratic Party identifiers who did not vote is the highest priority. Second, among the counties that Abbott won, I would largely ignore those counties where he won with 65 to 80 perc...