Saturday, June 5, 2021

Ideology and Party Identification: Voting Age Population vs. Registered Voters

 In my Honors Texas State and Local Government course on Thursday, we were talking about political ideology. One student asked if the chart that I presented on Ideology of Texans from 2010 to 2020 was of all Texans or just registered voters. The data were from the Texas Politics Project's poll and were from registered voters. Is there a considerable difference in political ideology and partisan identification between Texas' voting-age population (VAP) and Texas' registered voters? 

There is a considerable difference. Using data from the Texas Lyceum Poll from January 2021, which considers a random sample of Texas' VAP, and the Texas Politics Project Poll from February 2021, here are the results:




The percentage of moderates increases substantially; the percentage of liberals decreases by 11 percent; and the percentage of conservatives decreases by 9 percent. The results could have been expected as those Texans who are not registered to vote are less civically engaged and less likely to express a political ideology.

The partisan identification exhibits the same differences:








Saturday, May 22, 2021

Austin Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission

 Yesterday, the ICRC selected its final member. He is Joshua Blank. They also selected an interim chair--Christina Liu Puentes--and interim vice-chair--Luis Gonzalez. The average age of the commissioners is 43.57 years of age. The other demographic information is here:

Name

Gender

Ethnicity

District

Education

Calderon, Sara Ines

Female

Hispanic

2

Post-graduate Degree

Dempsey, Erin

Female

Hispanic

10

Post-graduate Degree

Finch, Whitney

Female

Anglo

2

Post-graduate Degree

Gonzalez, Luis

Male

Hispanic

10

Bachelor's Degree

Hardin, Errol

Male

African American

1

Post-graduate Degree

Kambo, Shaina

Female

African American

9

Associate's Degree

Kannan, Prabhu

Male

American Indian

5

Post-graduate Degree

Lands, Sterling

Male

African American

4

Post-graduate Degree

Le, Hoang

Male

Asian American

3

Bachelor's Degree

Morris, Brigham

Male

Asian American

3

Bachelor's Degree

Puentes, Christina

Female

Self-described

7

Post-graduate Degree

Schneider, Eugene

Male

Anglo

6

Post-graduate Degree

Yee. Salina

Female

Asian American

1

Bachelor's Degree

Blank, Joshua

Male

Anglo

8

Post-graduate Degree



Friday, May 21, 2021

Who Are We?

I borrowed the title for this post from a book by Samuel P. Huntington. The subtitle is The Challenges to America’s National Identity. It’s not my favorite book by Huntington, that’s American Politics: The Promise of Disharmony. That book, however, is followed by Who Are We? and the two books are related.

First, American Politics was written to answer a question that was posed to Huntington during his oral defense of his dissertation. “Mr. Huntington,” the member of his dissertation committee stated, “what is the relationship between political thought and political institutions?” The questioner, Dr. Samuel H. Beer, was a political scientist of preeminence. Huntington states that the question was the impetus for a three decade search for the answer to that question, as it pertains to America.

For many, America is an exceptional nation. In many respects that may be true, but it is not because of what America has achieved. It is because of the promise of America. It is because of the political thought that undergirds the documents of early American history. Our institutions of governance, on the other hand, have never achieved the lofty heights that our political ideals established. A fundamental institution of America’s founding was the institution of slavery—the creation of an economic, social, and political system that categorized a group of people as subhuman, as property who could be treated any way that their owners wanted. There was no recourse for those who suffered under the system.

The ideas that were the foundation of American political thought were equality, individualism, liberty, democracy, and constitutionalism. The first three ideas set the standards for relations between individuals and between individuals and their government. Equality, individualism, and liberty all express a love for freedom and mutual respect for the rights of others. Equality expresses the idea that all persons are created equal, that no person is beneath another. Individualism expresses the belief that individuals are free to act in accordance with their own conscience. And liberty expresses the belief that there are limits to government’s ability to place restrictions on individual behavior. The ideas of democracy and constitutionalism relate to the belief that the only form of government that conforms to the first three ideas is democratic and have the powers and, more importantly, the limitations on government codified in a constitution, created by the people to express the compact between them and their government.

But the institutions—slavery especially—have proven problematic. America aspires to create institutions that embody all five ideals, whether the institution is the family, the economy, religion, government, or education. Part of the dilemma is the relationship among the five political ideas: They are not supportive of one another. In fact, increasing equality among persons decreases individualism, for example. But the biggest dilemma is the result of slavery—what Isabel Wilkerson calls Caste: The Origins of Our Discontents.

For 400 years we have attempted to explain away the dissonance between our beliefs and the institution of slavery. Slavery was abolished after the Civil War, but institutions to maintain the practices that separated races and ethnicities, keeping the distinction that had no basis in fact alive. Were White people superior to Black and Brown people? We developed many rationales to sustain the separation and distinction. None was valid, but we were not deterred.

Recently, a friend recorded a video on Plessy v. Ferguson (1896), the case in which the U.S. Supreme Court validated the separation of people by race on interstate railway cars in Louisiana by stating the police power of the state allows such distinctions. The law that forced African Americans and other non-Whites to ride in a train car separate from White passengers was not a violation of the Fourteenth Amendment’s privileges and immunities, due process of law, or equal protection of the law clauses. The decision pointed out that segregation by race in public education had been upheld in Boston, Massachusetts and in other northern states as well as other distinctions such as prohibiting interracial marriage in a number of states. The distinctions did not violate the equal protection clause because the railway cars for Blacks and others were the same as the cars for the Whites. So we lived with these distinctions in the North and the South, and the dissonance did not cause us pain or trauma. That is, at least for many of us. This extended quote from Justice Brown’s majority opinion is revealing of the continuing dilemma:

We consider the underlying fallacy of the plaintiff's argument to consist in the assumption that the enforced separation of the two races stamps the colored race with a badge of inferiority. If this be so, it is not by reason of anything found in the act, but solely because the colored race chooses to put that construction upon it. The argument necessarily assumes that if, as has been more than once the case, and is not unlikely to be so again, the colored race should become the dominant power in the state legislature, and should enact a law in precisely similar terms, it would thereby relegate the white race to an inferior position. We imagine that the white race, at least, would not acquiesce in this assumption. The argument also assumes that social prejudices may be overcome by legislation, and that equal rights cannot be secured to the negro except by an enforced commingling of the two races. We cannot accept this proposition. If the two races are to meet upon terms of social equality, it must be the result of natural affinities, a mutual appreciation of each other's merits and a voluntary consent of individuals.

However, as Wilkerson notes, there was pain, both physical and emotional, felt by those who were separated because of a caste system that persists to this day—a system that made them less than human and enabled distinctions that should not be tolerated.

It is time for our aspirations expressed by our ideals to be achieved in the institutions of our society. It is time to cease justifying the dissonance and step into the ideal. We need to establish equity in our institutions by recognizing the humanity of all people, regardless of race, color, religion, gender, gender identity, or whom they love. In the final sentences of American Politics: The Promise of Disharmony, Huntington notes that some people say that “. . . America is a lie because its reality falls so short of its ideals. They are wrong. America is not a lie; it is a disappointment. But it can be a disappointment only because it is also a hope.” Achieving that hope would make America truly exceptional.     

Saturday, May 15, 2021

The Soap Opera That is the Austin ICRC

 Just when you thought that it couldn't get worse (you know the rest). At the April 23rd meeting of the Austin Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission (ICRC), the twelve commissioners attending the meeting attempted to replace the commissioner who resigned because she was not qualified.

After discussing the various possible appointees from the list of 60 Most Qualified Applicants, the group settled on two possible candidates: Isa Boonto-Zarifis and John McKiernan-Gonzalez. After discussing the merits of each candidate, the vote was conducted. The result was a tie vote; each candidate received six votes. The Austin City Charter requires a vote of nine members to replace a member of the Commission. The Commission has failed to hold a meeting since the April 23 debacle.

But there's more. One of the commissioners, Hoang Le, who resided in SMD 8 when he applied and was selected to the Commission, now resides, according to his voter registration information, in SMD 3, which means that SMD 8 has no representation on the Commission.

The Austin City Charter [Article II, Paragraph 3, (I) (9)] states: ". . .  As for the redistricting in each year ending in the number one thereafter, the eight commissioners shall ensure that at least one commission member resides in each of the then current council districts, to the extent feasible with the remaining six open seats." This means that there is no resident of SMD 8 currently on the Commission.

The Commissioners can remedy this situation by selecting the final commissioner from the several SMD 8 residents among the 60 Most Quality Applicants.

Wednesday, May 5, 2021

Results for Austin's 8 Propositions

 Consider me surprised. The voter turnout exceeded 20 percent, but only barely. The voter turnout was 22.55 percent.

Proposition B, the most contentious of the propositions, passed overwhelmingly with 57 percent of voters voting to reinstate the ban on camping. The proposition to change the form of Austin's municipal government from a council-manager form to a strong mayor-council form failed with only 14 percent supporting the proposed change. That was a good thing.

The table reflects the vote on each proposition:


The proposal for ranked-choice voting also passed overwhelmingly; however, the legislature would have to change the Texas Election Code to allow local governments to employ ranked-choice voting for it to become effective. The likelihood of legislative approval is slim to none given the current composition of the legislature.

Overall, it was not a good day politically for Austinites, but that could be said on many days.

Thursday, April 22, 2021

Austin Election on Eight Propositions

 On May 1, 2021, Austin residents will vote on eight propositions, many of which will alter the Austin City Charter. Probably the most contentious issue involves reinstating a camping ban in Austin, which would make camping in public spaces a class "C" misdemeanor. The only penalty is a fine; however, since homeless persons cannot pay the fine, a warrant for the person's arrest will be issued. It does nothing to solve the homeless situation in Austin. 

Many of the issues deal with changing the Austin City Charter. The most significant change would change the form of municipal governance in Austin from the Council-Manager form to a Strong Mayor-Council form. The justification for this proposition is to make the operation of municipal government in Austin more accountable to the residents. Another proposition moves the mayoral election from non-presidential general election years to presidential general election years. The mayor would still serve a four-year term. However, proponents argue that the mayor will be subjected to more pressure to abide by the residents' opinions than the current city manager is. The city manager can be removed by the City Council now, but proponents of this change don't think that the pressure is enough on the city manager to force compliance with the citizens' desires. 

Two proposals were considered by an Austin Charter Review Commission two years ago and rejected by the commission; however, they are on this ballot. One proposal would establish Ranked Choice Voting for council elections if allowed by the Texas legislature. Ranked Choice Voting allows each voter to rank the candidates for an office in order of preference. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote for the first place votes for the office, the candidate with the fewest first place votes is eliminated, and the second place votes of those voters are distributed to the remaining candidates. If no candidate receives a majority of the votes, the process is repeated until a candidate receives a majority of the votes. This system eliminates the need for run-off elections, which occur in December currently and have very low voter turnout percentages. Furthermore, there is less negative campaigning since the candidates is trying to garner as many first place votes as possible and all voters' ballots are important. The other proposal would create a Democracy Dollars program that would send every registered voter in Austin two $26 certificates that could be contributed to a candidate for mayor (one certificate) and to a candidate in his or her council district (one certificate). The cost is a major impediment to the approval of this measure. However, cities that employ this system, such as Seattle, Washington, have experienced an increase in candidates for council positions who would not have the resources to compete otherwise. 

Unfortunately, voter turnout will be low. So far, after three days of early voting (one-third of the total days of early voting), voter turnout in Travis County is only 3.35 percent of registered voters. I would be surprised if turnout exceeds 20 percent of registered voters.

Early voting ends on April 27th, and Election Day is Saturday, May 1st. If you haven't voted, please exercise your right to vote.

Voter Guides are here.

Friday, April 9, 2021

SNAFU at the Austin Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission

At today's meeting of the Austin ICRC, the Austin Auditor's Office explained that there was a glitch in the selection process for the commission. The result was five applicants for the commission being deemed unqualified when the five were actually qualified. In addition, five applicants who were not qualified were deemed qualified. So ten applicants were not categorized correctly by the Austin Auditor's Office.

Since one of the applicants who was not qualified was selected  in the March meeting by the eight commissioners who were selected randomly, the commission was required to select a replacement. In addition, another applicant selected for the commission was not qualified, but the Auditor's Office, after consulting with Austin's Legal Office, decided that the applicant would need to be replaced by the thirteen commissioners at the next meeting.

The commission debated the possible replacements among the 60 most qualified applicants and chose Salina R. Yee, who resides in District 1, is Asian American, has a bachelor's degree, is female, and is between 35 and 44 years of age. 

Here are the thirteen members who are now a part of the commission.


The two unqualified commissioners were Anika Keswani and Nuria Zaragosa. Looking forward to the next meeting.

Saturday, March 13, 2021

Austin Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission

 The eight members who were selected randomly to the Austin Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission (ICRC) met on Thursday, March 11th and selected the remaining six commissioners.

The spreadsheet displays the following information about the commissioners: name, district, gender identity, ethnicity, education, and age (in categories).


You can view the member's application for the commission by clicking on the member's name. There are answers to the three criteria for judging the qualifications of the member as well as additional information.

The following charts break down the commission members in terms of demographic categories and Austin city council district of residence.

All of the current Austin city council districts are represented with Districts 2, 7, 9, and 10 having two members of the commission. The commission members are diverse in ethnicity, age, and gender identity. They are extremely well educated with 10 of the 14 members having post-graduate degrees.

I urge you to follow this group as they organize, hire staff, and prepare the Austin city council's districts for the next decade.




Tuesday, February 9, 2021

Throw Back Tuesday

 On February 8, 2018, I posted about the direction of the Republican Party and offered a syllogism that I borrowed from an article in The Atlantic. I argued that the Republican Party under Donald Trump had become Trump's party. It had lost its way, abandoning its conservative ideology in favor of supporting Trump because he could give them a tax cut, fewer regulations of everything, and justices on the federal courts. I called for a Republican Party that returned to its conservative values within a framework of support for the American Ideals of individualism, equality, liberty, democracy, and constitutionalism. Nobody reads this blog; so my pleas were unheard. 

Republicans now face an opportunity to "do the right thing." Failing to convict Donald Trump of the House impeachment charges and foregoing the opportunity to prevent him from ever holding public office in the future, the Republican Party cannot stand for the values listed above. Donald Trump has no ideological values; he is transactional and only cares about policies that promote his wealth and personal power. 

This is a plea to Republicans to convince their senators that taking a stand is what they need to do. Take a stand for American democracy and the future of the Republican Party; convict Donald J. Trump of inciting an insurrection and prohibit him from ever holding public office again. Please! 

Monday, February 8, 2021

Party Identification in Texas

 The Lyceum Poll was published in January 2021. The sample includes Texans who are 18 years of age or older. Among the sample, 70 percent were registered voters. The results are quite different from the party identification of registered voters in Texas. As you can imagine, they are more likely to be independents, people who identify with neither major party. Also, those who do identify are less likely to consider themselves strong partisans. Here are the results:



Monday, January 25, 2021

Austin Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission

 On Saturday, January 23rd, the Austin City Auditor used a random sampling application to select the first eight members of Austin's Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission (ICRC). With the selection of these members, my term as a member of the first ICRC ended. I remain interested in the Commission and its efforts to ensure fair and legal districts for Austin's City Council.

The first eight members are listed below:



There can be no doubt that the first members are diverse, well-educated, and represent most of Austin's current districts. These eight will meet and select the remaining six members from the list of 60 most qualified applicants. The eight commissioners will need to include one student member (there are two students among the 60 most qualified applicants). They should ensure that the districts that aren't currently represented get representation, that the ethnic composition of the ICRC reflects the ethnic composition of Austin, and that the gender identity reflects the gender identity of Austin.

Join me as the Commission gets started by choosing the remaining six members, selects its staff, and starts the public hearings that enable them to hear and respond to Austin residents' desires for Austin's ten city council districts.

Friday, January 1, 2021

Texas Triangle: Harris County and Its Suburbs

 

Let’s start with the most populous county in Texas, Harris County, and its suburbs. There are nine counties that Wayne Thorburn considered in his study of Texas turning Red.[i] The map depicts Harris County and the nine suburban counties (Austin, Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Liberty, Montgomery, Waller, and Washington).



We will consider voting in Harris County and the nine suburban counties in elections between 2010 and 2020. In each case, we will consider the presidential election years (2012, 2016, and 2020) separately from the gubernatorial election years (2010, 2014, and 2018) because the electorates are different. Voter turnout is always higher in presidential election years. In each election, we will consider only the two-party vote and the vote in the contest with the highest number of votes.

Democrats have made some gains in gubernatorial election years, but the changes are minor. Table 1 depicts the votes during the gubernatorial election years in 2010 through 2018.

Table 1: Gubernatorial Election Years



In the three gubernatorial election years, the Republican percentage of the vote increased slightly from 54 percent to 58 percent between 2010 and 2014, only to slip considerable in 2018 (down to 48 percent. Most of the change was a result of a larger Democratic share of the Harris County vote. Among the nine suburban counties, the Democratic share of the vote increased by only about four percent between 2010 and 2018.

In 2010, Rick Perry, in his last gubernatorial contest, lost Harris County to former Houston mayor Democrat Bill White, but Perry won all of the suburban counties. His average was almost 63 percent of the vote. In 2014, Greg Abbott won Harris County and all of the suburban counties. In 2018, the contest that received the greatest number of votes was the U.S. Senate contest between Ted Cruz, the incumbent senator, and Beto O’Rourke, the Democratic challenger. Cruz lost Harris County rather dramatically and also lost Fort Bend County, one of the largest of the suburban counties.

During the midterm elections since 2010, the Democrats have gained a stronghold in Harris County. However, Democrats have been less successful.in spreading their support into the suburbs; only Fort Bend has flipped. Nevertheless, Brazoria County and Waller County might be counties where Democratic candidates could make some inroads into identifying and motivating Democrats to participate.

In presidential contests since 2012, Democrats have shown more growth. Table 2 depicts the results from the last three presidential contests:

Table 2: Presidential Election Years


In 2020, Biden won a majority of the vote in Harris County and the adjoining suburbs; however, his majority was dependent on a strong showing in Harris County. In the nine suburban counties, Biden lost by a large margin—41percent to Trump’s 59 percent. Biden also won Fort Bend County. Brazoria County’s support for the Republican presidential candidate has declined over the three elections, but the margin is still huge. Republican support in Montgomery County has also declined, but it still exceeds 70 percent of the vote.

Success in Harris County and its suburbs will probably come from an expansion of support in Harris and Fort Bend Counties. Additionally, efforts should be effected in parts of Brazoria County and, to a lesser extent, in Montgomery County. Grass-roots organization is essential to identify and turn out Democratic Party supporters.



[i] Wayne Thorburn, Red State: An Insider’s Story of How the GOP Cam to Dominate Texas Politics. Austin: University of Texas Press, 2014.