Constitutional Amendment Election Turnout

I predicted that voter turnout would be less than ten percent, and I was wrong. My error was in assuming that the early vote would constitute a larger share of the total vote than it did. Usually, more than half of the total vote is the early vote. In this election, only 40.09 percent of the total vote was the early vote. The total vote of 1,972,842 constituted 12.36 percent of the registered voters (15,962,988). Nine of the ten constitutional amendments were adopted, which means that the current number of constitutional amendments rises to 507. The only amendment that was not adopted was Proposition 1, which would have allowed municipal judges to hold more than one elected judicial position. The highest voter turnout was for Proposition 4, which amends the constitution to prohibit a tax on the incomes of individuals. The amendment that was adopted with the highest percentage of votes was proposition 10, which allows police dogs to be adopted by their handlers after the dog is retired from active duty. One propositions barely passed, which was proposition 9 that dealt with taxes on precious metals. The table demonstrates each proposition and the percentage of the vote for and against.

Proposition 1 PERCENT Yes 34.56% No 65.44% Proposition 2 PERCENT Yes 65.62% No 34.38% Proposition 3 PERCENT Yes 85.09% No 14.91% Proposition 4 PERCENT Yes 74.41% No 25.59% Proposition 5 PERCENT Yes 88.00% No 12.00% Proposition 6 PERCENT Yes 64% No 36% Proposition 7 PERCENT Yes 74.12% No 25.88% Proposition 8 PERCENT Yes 77.83% No 22.17% Proposition 9 PERCENT Yes 51.60% No 48.40% Proposition 10 PERCENT Yes 93.75% No 6.25%

Texas' Registered Voters Party Identification

The UT/Texas Tribune Poll for October 2019 shows little movement in party identification among Texas' registered voters.

PID of Texas Registered Voters

Election Day

Tomorrow, November 5, 2019, is Election Day. If you haven't voted early (as I did), then you need to get to any polling place in Travis County (if you're registered in Travis County) and cast your vote on ten constitutional amendments, one county proposition, and other issues, depending on where you reside.

I know, "Why should I vote?" Do the issues affect you? Yes, they do. There are several constitutional amendments that could affect you or people that you care about. For me, the most important constitutional amendment is Proposition 4, which, if adopted, will place a prohibition on an income tax in the Texas Constitution. I know that Texans hate an income tax. What are the alternatives if additional revenue is needed by the state to fund such essential services as public education, higher education, health care, transportation, as well as others that you can probably think of?

Only 4.98 percent of Texas' nearly 16 million registered voters have voted early. Your vote counts, and it counts for even more in low voter turnout elections, such as this special election. As an active citizen, make your views known by voting.

Early Voting Ends

Friday, November 1st, marked the end of early voting. The early vote in all 254 Texas counties came very close to five percent of registered voters in Texas, who number nearly 16 million. The fifteen largest counties produced a slightly lower voter turnout percentage. With only Election Day left for additional participants, the total vote will probably be less than ten percent of registered voters.

Here is the chart from all 12 days of early voting in the 15 largest counties in terms of registered voters:

Early Vote After Eleven Days

This is the last day of early voting in Texas for ten constitutional amendments, three special elections for Texas House seats, and many local propositions. After eleven days of early voter, only 3.93 percent of registered voters in Texas have weighed in one the amendments, special elections, and propositions. The chart compares voter turnout in 2019 with similar elections in 2015 and 2017. The 2019 results so far track between the two elections, slightly more similar to 2015 than to 2017. If the trend continues with a slight increase because it is the last day, fewer than five percent of registered voters will have voted early in this election.

A one percent increase will put the turnout at 4.87 percent in the counties with the largest number of registered voters and 4.93 in all 254 counties. When the totals are available from today's early vote, I'll predict total voter turnout.

And on the Eighth Day....

After eight days of early voting, 2.55 percent of registered voters in Texas had cast their votes on ten constitutional amendments. The 15 largest counties accounted for nearly the same percentage of early votes. The trend continues, and at this rate, about ten percent of registered voters will participate when the votes are tallied after Election Day.

Early Voting After Seven Days

Early voting continues for just four more days after today. Friday is always a big day. If you plan to vote early, you need to select a date and location and be an active citizen. I know that constitutional amendments and local propositions are not sexy, but they are necessary. Among the constitutional amendments, there is at least one amendment (Prop 4) that has serious ramifications for Texas' future and its ability to provide services for residents of the state. GO VOTE!

Day Five of Early Voting

Day five saw a slight drop in the rate of increase in early voting in the 15 largest counties in Texas. However, in all 254 counties, the percentage increased to 1.88 percent.

Early Voting Continues

The fourth day of early voting in the fifteen Texas counties with the greatest number of registered voters resulted in a percentage that is very close to the percentage in the 2015 constitutional amendment election. When will that percentage be surpassed? I predict that it will occur this weekend.

Three Days of Early Voting on Texas Constitutional Amendments

After Wednesday's tally, Texans have completed one-fourth of the days for early voting on ten constitutional amendments. I've done my part. Now, you need to vote.

Early Voting Continues through November 1, 2019. Let your voice be heard!

Early Voting in the Constitutional Amendments, 2019

I will be posting daily on voter turnout in the election to consider ten proposed amendments to the Texas Constitution. Amended 498 times since 1876, the Constitution continues to have layers of new skin applied to the deteriorating body that was crafted in 1875 in response to the administration of Governor E.J. Davis and Radical Republican Reconstruction. Unfortunately, the skin doesn't perfectly cover the scars left by years of face lifts and other cosmetic procedures.

Voter turnout is not good in Texas, and it's even worse in special elections, which are held to fill vacancies in some offices, consider bonds, and adopt or reject constitutional amendments. In the most recent special election for constitutional amendments, November 2017, only 4.5 percent of the voting age population and 5.81 percent of registered voters turned out. The prospects aren't good for a large turnout in this election. Although the early voting percentages from the state's 30 counties with the largest number of registered voters is not necessarily predictive of total turnout, it does provide a measure of voter enthusiasm and interest. I know that several groups in Travis County are pushing turnout as the county this election is the premier of the county's new voting system. There is also at least one measure, Proposition 4 on the prohibition of an income tax on individuals, that has created some discussion.

So, starting tomorrow, I will be posting a graph depicting early voting in the counties from the Texas Secretary of State's office. I will also be posting the figures from 2017 and 2015 for comparison. In 2015, 8.30 percent of the voting age population and 11.34 percent of registered voters vote. The 2015 and 2017 elections will provide an interesting basis for comparison.

Constitutional Amendments

Early voting on 10 amendments to the Texas Constitution starts today. Among the amendments is Proposition 4, which creates a constitutional ban on an income tax in Texas. There are a number of things wrong with this amendment.
First, Texas has a provision in Article VIII, Taxation and Revenue, that requires a vote of the people to approve any creation of a tax on the income of "natural persons." It also specifies that the proceeds from an income tax will be dedicated to reducing the local property tax for education (two-thirds of the proceeds) and to support education (one-third of the proceeds). This has been a part of the Texas Constitution since 1993. Although it does not prohibit an income tax, it specifies that the people of Texas will decide whether an income tax, if enacted by the legislature, is needed.

Second, and more importantly, the wording of the amendment is troublesome. It bans an income tax on income of "individuals." Amendments to the bill were offered during its debate on the House floor to substitute "natural persons" for "individuals," but they were rejected. Why would the author, Representative Leach, not accept the amendments? Mike Collier, Democratic candidate for Lieutenant Governor in 2018, offers an answer, with which I whole-heartedly agree. Think about the motives of Representative Leach. Have Republicans not railed against the franchise tax? Have they not tried to eliminate it?

Mike Collier's video:

How Did the New Members Change the Texas House in 2019

In 2018, there were 32 individuals who had never served in the Texas House of Representatives elected. Trey Martinez-Fischer had served previously and won back his old House seat after his unsuccessful run for the Texas Senate. Ideologically, how were these members different from their predecessors?


After every recent session of the legislature, Professor Mark P. Jones of Rice University releases his calculation of the ideology of each House and Senate member. The calculation is based on each member’s roll-call votes that are contested votes. His calculation “. . . uses a Bayesian estimation procedure belonging to the family of methodological approaches that represent the political science discipline’s gold standard for roll-call vote analysis.” A negative number (e.g., -.04) indicates that the votes cast were left of center, or liberal. A positive number (e.g., 0.79) indicates that the member’s votes were right of center, or conservative. 


Republicans Replaced by Republicans


The Republicans who replaced Republicans in a House district were more conservative than their predecessors. The table demonstrates the difference for the eleven Republicans who replaced fellow Republicans in the Texas House:

Republican to Republican
District	Rep 85th	Lib-Con Score	Rep 86th	Lib-Con Score	Change	Direction
4	Gooden	-0.46	Bell, K.	0.17	0.63	more conservative
8	Cook	-0.29	Harris	0.31	0.60	more conservative
13	Schubert	-0.10	Leman	0.22	0.32	more conservative
15	Keough	0.20	Toth	0.35	0.15	more conservative
23	Faircloth	0.00	Middleton	0.64	0.64	more conservative
54	Cosper	-0.21	Buckley	0.04	0.25	more conservative
62	Phillps	0.02	Smith	0.15	0.13	more conservative
89	Laubenberg	-0.04	Noble	0.34	0.38	more conservative
106	Fallon	0.27	Patterson	0.46	0.19	more conservative
121	Straus*		Allison	0.06
126	Roberts	-0.25	Harless	0.04	0.29	more conservative
* As speaker, Straus did not vote; so no score could be calculated AVERAGE					0.36

The change column represents the absolute value of the change from the previous Republican’s Lib-Con score to the current Republican’s Lib-Con score. The average change is 0.36 more conservative than the previous House member. Of the replaced Republicans, a majority (60 percent) were left of center; and none of the representatives that won in 2018 were left of center. The most conservative was Representative Middleton, who replaced Wayne Faircloth. In other words, the Republicans in the 86^th Legislature were more conservative than the Republicans they replaced, who had served in the 85^th Legislature.


Democrats Replaced by Democrats


The Democrats who replaced Democrats in a House district were less liberal than their predecessors.  The table illustrates the difference for the eight Democrats who replaced fellow Democrats in the Texas House.

Democrat to Democrat
District	Rep 85th	Lib-Con Score	Rep 86th	Lib-Con Score	Change	Direction
37	Oliviera, Rene	-1.36	Dominguez, Alex	-0.92	0.44	less liberal
46	Dukes, Dawna	-1.81	Cole, Sheryl	-0.98	0.83	less liberal
79	Pickett, Joe	-1.07	Fierro, Art	-0.91	0.16	less liberal
104	Alanzo, Roberto	-1.41	Gonzalez, Mary E.	-1.09	0.32	less liberal
109	Giddings, Helen	-1.43	Sherman, Carl Sr.	-1.08	0.35	less liberal
116	Arevalo, Diana	-1.80	Fischer, Trey Martinez	-0.94	0.86	less liberal
125	Rodriguez, Justin	-1.75	Lopez, Ray	-0.99	0.76	less liberal
145	Alvarado, Carol	-1.53	Morales, Christina	-1.07	0.46	less liberal
AVERAGE					0.46

The absolute change for Democrats who replaced Democrats moved an average of 0.46 more conservative than the previous Democrat’s Lib-Con score. For example, Trey Martinez Fischer, who replaced Diana Arevalo, was still liberal, but he was less liberal than she was.


Republicans Replaced by Democrats


Twelve Democrats defeated Republicans in 2018. As one would expect, the greatest change in Lib-Con score occurred in these districts. The table shows the differences:

Republican to Democrat
District	Rep 85th	Lib-Con Score	Rep 86th	Lib-Con Score	Change	Direction
45	Issac, Jason	0.08	Zwiener, Erin	-1.18	1.16	more liberal
47	Workman, Paul	-0.28	Goodwin, Vikki	-1.17	0.93	more liberal
52	Gonzales, Larry	-0.31	Talarico, James	-1.05	0.74	more liberal
65	Simmons, Ron	0.27	Beckley, Michelle	-1.14	1.41	more liberal
102	Koop, Linda	-0.34	Ramos, Ana-Maria	-1.31	0.97	more liberal
105	Anderson, Rodney	0.01	Meza, Terry	-1.06	1.07	more liberal
113	Burkett, Cindy	-0.28	Bowers, Rhetta	-1.02	0.74	more liberal
114	Villalba, Jason	-0.40	Turner, John	-1.08	0.68	more liberal
115	Rinaldi, Matt	0.75	Johnson, Julie	-1.04	1.79	more liberal
132	Schofield, Mike	0.05	Calanni, Gina	-1.01	1.06	more liberal
135	Elkins, Gary	-0.14	Rosenthal, Jon	-1.18	1.14	more liberal
136	Dale, Tony	-0.01	Bucy III, John	-1.07	1.06	more liberal
AVERAGE					1.06

The change produced a representative that was much more liberal than the representative that was replaced. In District 115, Matt Rinaldi was replaced by Julie Johnson, a change of 1.79 on the Lib-Con score. But that was the extreme. The average change on the Lib-Con score was 1.06, which is quite large.


Overall, when Republican representatives replaced Republicans, the shift was in a more conservative direction. When a Democratic representative replaced a Democrat, the shift was in a less liberal direction, indicating that some Democratic representatives had become too liberal for their district. When a Democratic representative replaced a Republican, the shift is to a much more liberal representative. What all of this suggests is that Texas, though not liberal, is becoming less conservative. The 2020 elections may provide a better test of where Texas is moving ideologically.